TOTD 2018-10-15: Midterms Predictions

We are about three weeks from the midterms. It is time to gaze into your crystal ball and tell us the future. What will be the outcome?

  1. Blue wave
  2. No change
  3. Red wave
  4. Divided Houses between Dems and Reps
  5. A Libertarian candidate wins
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19 thoughts on “TOTD 2018-10-15: Midterms Predictions”

  1. I am going with a small Red Wave. I think we are seeing the anti-Trump forces helping Trump again. Serious people will not want the government to go into chaos.

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  2. I sense a red wave, don’t know how large. A plumber called into the talk station in Phila last week, said he’s in a dozen different kitchens every week & he talks & listens to people, and an awful lot of Dems are disgusted with their party and will vote R.

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  3. I’d like to see a red wave. More likely are solid gains in the Senate and the Republicans hold the House by a narrow margin. That is closer to 3 than 4.

    Oh yes – and if this happens (4-5 seat pickup in the Senate and the Republicans hold the House by single digits) post election the meme will be the Republicans underperformed expectations because Donald Trump is President and the voting public does not like him.  Fred Cole will believe this and publish a long screed on the Main Feed explaining why Republicans would have done better if Trump were not President.

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  4. When you asked this several weeks ago I replied with #2 “no change.”

    I am thinking more optimistically now.   Senate +1.

    I am really cautious.  I don’t have a great sense of what is going on in swing states.

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  5. I’m between TKC and Seawriter.  Blue ripple in the House, not leading to their control. R225-ish.  Red ripple in the Senate, picking up two or three.

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  6. Seawriter:
    I’d like to see a red wave. More likely are solid gains in the Senate and the Republicans hold the House by a narrow margin. That is closer to 3 than 4.

    Oh yes – and if this happens (4-5 seat pickup in the Senate and the Republicans hold the House by single digits) post election the meme will be the Republicans underperformed expectations because Donald Trump is President and the voting public does not like him.  Fred Cole will believe this and publish a long screed on the Main Feed explaining why Republicans would have done better if Trump were not President.

    I agree with this. The Blue Wave meme has always been based on the generic ballot, but we don’t vote on a generic ballot. When it is analyzed race by race, it has always been obvious that if the House flipped it would require the Dems winning every close race which is unlikely. The House was always going to be a close thing, but the GOP has a good chance of holding it if we show up and vote. With Beto, Bredeson, and Heitkamp fading, it’s impossible for the Dems to take the Senate. Even if the GOP splits the toss-ups, that would expand their seats in the Senate.

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  7. Looking at it historically, using a statistical approach, the average loss for the Party in the White House (Mean and Median, Mode is hard as the numbers just are not exactly the same) is -26. This is more than is needed to give the Democrats control. The Standard Dev is twice that. To me, you cannot call it a historical wave unless you are pushing a loss of 40+ for the GOP.

    What this means, however, is anything that results in keeping the House will be a historical victory for the Republicans. Just going with history here.

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  8. Bryan G. Stephens:
    What this means, however, is anything that results in keeping the House will be a historical victory for the Republicans. Just going with history here.

    You just think it will be a historical victory if that happens, but the media will explain it was more evidence of the unpopularity of the Republican Party and a really disappointing result for Republicans.

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  9. Seawriter:

    Bryan G. Stephens:
    What this means, however, is anything that results in keeping the House will be a historical victory for the Republicans. Just going with history here.

    You just think it will be a historical victory if that happens, but the media will explain it was more evidence of the unpopularity of the Republican Party and a really disappointing result for Republicans.

    They can say that all they want, it won’t make it true, and it is easily rebutted.

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  10. Bryan G. Stephens:

    Seawriter:

    Bryan G. Stephens:
    What this means, however, is anything that results in keeping the House will be a historical victory for the Republicans. Just going with history here.

    You just think it will be a historical victory if that happens, but the media will explain it was more evidence of the unpopularity of the Republican Party and a really disappointing result for Republicans.

    They can say that all they want, it won’t make it true, and it is easily rebutted.

    Yes, but the low information crowd that take their information from legacy Big Media will never hear the rebuttals.

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  11. MJBubba:

    Bryan G. Stephens:

    Seawriter:

    Bryan G. Stephens:
    What this means, however, is anything that results in keeping the House will be a historical victory for the Republicans. Just going with history here.

    You just think it will be a historical victory if that happens, but the media will explain it was more evidence of the unpopularity of the Republican Party and a really disappointing result for Republicans.

    They can say that all they want, it won’t make it true, and it is easily rebutted.

    Yes, but the low information crowd that take their information from legacy Big Media will never hear the rebuttals.

    Just wanting to rebutt a cpl people

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  12. Bryan G. Stephens:

    MJBubba:

    Bryan G. Stephens:

    Seawriter:

    Bryan G. Stephens:
    What this means, however, is anything that results in keeping the House will be a historical victory for the Republicans. Just going with history here.

    You just think it will be a historical victory if that happens, but the media will explain it was more evidence of the unpopularity of the Republican Party and a really disappointing result for Republicans.

    They can say that all they want, it won’t make it true, and it is easily rebutted.

    Yes, but the low information crowd that take their information from legacy Big Media will never hear the rebuttals.

    Just wanting to rebutt a cpl people

    Just a couple?

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  13. 10 Cents:

    Bryan G. Stephens:

    MJBubba:

    Bryan G. Stephens:

    Seawriter:

    Bryan G. Stephens:
    What this means, however, is anything that results in keeping the House will be a historical victory for the Republicans. Just going with history here.

    You just think it will be a historical victory if that happens, but the media will explain it was more evidence of the unpopularity of the Republican Party and a really disappointing result for Republicans.

    They can say that all they want, it won’t make it true, and it is easily rebutted.

    Yes, but the low information crowd that take their information from legacy Big Media will never hear the rebuttals.

    Just wanting to rebutt a cpl people

    Just a couple?

    Two in particualar

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  14. There isn’t going to be a blue wave.

    I think the GOP will keep the House and pick up several Senate seats.

    If it was otherwise- and polls indicated the GOP was going to get crushed- we’d be seeing this repeated endlessly everywhere by the leftist media. Instead- looking at the leftist news feed Apple kindly sends to my iPhone whether I want it or not- I’m getting stories about following school teachers around, etc.

    In fact I’ll go a little further- I think the GOP will do much better than expected this year. I admit this is a vague statement, so I’ll be a bit more specific. Plus or minus 10 seats for the House, plus 8 in the Senate.

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  15. Xennady:
    In fact I’ll go a little further- I think the GOP will do much better than expected this year. I admit this is a vague statement, so I’ll be a bit more specific. Plus or minus 10 seats for the House, plus 8 in the Senate.

    I don’t think it will be that high, but I like your prediction. Like I said earlier, it does not matter how well the GOP does. They could make gains in the House and get 60 Senators and the MSM would still be spinning it as the GOP underperformed.

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  16. Seawriter:

    Xennady:
    In fact I’ll go a little further- I think the GOP will do much better than expected this year. I admit this is a vague statement, so I’ll be a bit more specific. Plus or minus 10 seats for the House, plus 8 in the Senate.

    I don’t think it will be that high, but I like your prediction. Like I said earlier, it does not matter how well the GOP does. They could make gains in the House and get 60 Senators and the MSM would still be spinning it as the GOP underperformed.

    I like it too!  Please be right, Xennady!

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  17. They could make gains in the House and get 60 Senators and the MSM would still be spinning it as the GOP underperformed.

    True statement, but I think this matters less and less.

    At this point I suspect any conservative paying attention to the MSM does so only to see what our enemies are up to. And leftists prefer their delusions pure, without any pretense of moderation.

    Someday soon the MSM will exist only to be mocked, by both sides.

    That is, if it isn’t already.

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