Victor Davis Hanson: Why Trump Will Win Again in 2020

For a university professor emeritus, think tank fellow, writer for National Review, who is fluent in Greek and Latin, Victor Davis Hanson gets outside the bubble (What’s your score?  Mine is 26.) more than most conservative pundits.  In the January 2020 edition of the U.S. edition of The Spectator, he explains “Why Trump will win again in 2020”.

My reasons for thinking Trump was going to be elected in 2016 were entirely unscientific. One of my Hoover Institution colleagues recently reminded me of my data-free, amateurish and bothersome predictions.

During the last two weeks I made the same rounds — a high-school football game at my alma mater, talks with Mexican American professionals, some rural farm events. Were those impressions three years ago hallucinations? Hardly. Trump support has, if anything, increased — and not just because of record low unemployment and an economy that has turned even my once-ossified rural community into a bustle of shopping, office-construction and home-building, with ‘Now Hiring’ signs commonplace.

It is easy to say that 2020 seems to be replaying 2016, complete with the identical insularity of progressives, as if what should never have happened then certainly cannot now. But this time around there is an even greater sense of anger and need for retribution especially among the most unlikely Trump supporters. It reflects a fed-up payback for three years of nonstop efforts to overthrow an elected president, anger at anti-Trump hysteria and weariness at being lectured. A year is a proverbial long time. The economy could tank. The president might find himself trading missiles with Iran. At 73, a sleep-deprived, hamburger-munching Trump might discover his legendary stamina finally giving out. Still, there is a growing wrath in the country, either ignored, suppressed or undetected by the partisan media. It is a desire for a reckoning with ‘them’. For lots of quiet, ordinary people, 2020 is shaping up as the get-even election — in ways that transcend even Trump himself.

Read the whole thing.

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Author: John Walker

Founder of Ratburger.org, Autodesk, Inc., and Marinchip Systems. Author of The Hacker's Diet. Creator of www.fourmilab.ch.

41 thoughts on “Victor Davis Hanson: Why Trump Will Win Again in 2020”

  1. 10 Cents:Are they tired of losing yet? I think not.

    This is true – it seems they are, what, quintupling down on their efforts at this time? It is mind boggling to witness.

    Philadelphia just this week announced its new police chief – Danielle Outlaw – you can’t make it up. She was previously chief in Portland. OR.  You know, Portland, where all the riots are, and the police stand down? That’s Philly’s new cop in charge.

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  2. I can’t imagine our country being governed by any of the Democrat  candidates . We have not moved that far left that voters can  suspend  belief.

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  3. Bryan G. Stephens:
    Frankly, I am not thrilled with that survey. It seems innately hostile.

    It is also U.S.-centric.  I would have scored higher based on having lived 25 years in an agricultural village with a population less than 1200 if the survey didn’t qualify the question as “American”, and for eating in chain restaurants, none of which exist where I live (I usually eat once a week at McDonald’s, which wasn’t on the list).  I know about Branson, Missouri, but having been involved in aerospace since the 1980s, when I hear “Branson” I usually think about Sir Richard.

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  4. Bryan G. Stephens:
    I am also 26. Frankly, I am not thrilled with that survey. It seems innately hostile. I want my kids to not to have a job that makes them hurt all over.

    I’m 48.

    The military frequently left you aching all over. ?Are you against your children serving in the service. ?Are you against your kids racing and wrenching on their own race car. ?Are you against them serving as pit crew to a race team.

    Just asking. My kids do not do manual labour for a job, but I have watched my son work hard physically to help a friend who has a little “farm”. I have watched my daughter train hard and do very well in several half-ironman competitions. My parents were professionals but I grew up in a middle class neighborhood. My best friend next door was not that bright, ended up being a beer truck driver; his parents thought that was a fine job – and it was.

    I went to a boarding school for high school and an ivy for college but then joined the Marine Corps. I lived with my platoon, first in the jungle and then in the rice paddies. My platoon was made up of young kids (younger even than I was) like my driver, a black kid from “funky, funky North Philadelphia”. He was always keeping us all laughing. 1/3 of my platoon at least were Southern boys who had stolen a car to go joy-riding, got arrested or GTA, and the judge had given them the choice of jail or the Marine Corps. None of us had aspirations of a future; we just hoped we would survive the war. And if you wanted to see REAL ABJECT POVERTY you just had to drive through Dogpatch or The Crossroads – or really anywhere in Danang. Or walk through a ville and see the houses whose walls were made of the cardboard sleeves of a c-ration cases.

    The questions were aimed to see if you can understand and relate to the average middle class working man and woman. You don’t have to do that job, but you need to understand their aspirations and feelings. I think I do. I guess you don’t.

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  5. The most effective advocate for President Trump that I personally know is a black man with a real middle-level blue-collar job and a real family.  He lives in a suburb in the near ring of Memphis that is a (rare) truly integrated neighborhood.   He is Nation of Islam, so a follower of Louis Farrakhan.

    I bet no black working man friends of his will vote for the Democrat.   They won’t vote for Trump, maybe, but they won’t vote against Trump, either.   They are going to vote for their local Democrats, and leave the top of the ticket blank.

    Since we are in a red state, that won’t make an electoral difference.   But all these guys have friends and family in every city from New Orleans to Chicago and in Atlanta, Detroit, etc.   I know this is just anecdotal, like TKC1101.  But with enough validation, a picture emerges that lets us know what is going on below Talking Snake Media radar.   Having corroboration from VDH is nice.

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  6. Devereaux:

    Bryan G. Stephens:
    I am also 26. Frankly, I am not thrilled with that survey. It seems innately hostile. I want my kids to not to have a job that makes them hurt all over.

    I’m 48.

    The military frequently left you aching all over. ?Are you against your children serving in the service. ?Are you against your kids racing and wrenching on their own race car. ?Are you against them serving as pit crew to a race team.

    Just asking. My kids do not do manual labour for a job, but I have watched my son work hard physically to help a friend who has a little “farm”. I have watched my daughter train hard and do very well in several half-ironman competitions. My parents were professionals but I grew up in a middle class neighborhood. My best friend next door was not that bright, ended up being a beer truck driver; his parents thought that was a fine job – and it was.

    I went to a boarding school for high school and an ivy for college but then joined the Marine Corps. I lived with my platoon, first in the jungle and then in the rice paddies. My platoon was made up of young kids (younger even than I was) like my driver, a black kid from “funky, funky North Philadelphia”. He was always keeping us all laughing. 1/3 of my platoon at least were Southern boys who had stolen a car to go joy-riding, got arrested or GTA, and the judge had given them the choice of jail or the Marine Corps. None of us had aspirations of a future; we just hoped we would survive the war. And if you wanted to see REAL ABJECT POVERTY you just had to drive through Dogpatch or The Crossroads – or really anywhere in Danang. Or walk through a ville and see the houses whose walls were made of the cardboard sleeves of a c-ration cases.

    The questions were aimed to see if you can understand and relate to the average middle class working man and woman. You don’t have to do that job, but you need to understand their aspirations and feelings. I think I do. I guess you don’t.

    That was uncalled for, and is exactly what I am talking about.

    25 years in community mental health, I dare say I understand the trials of the very poor and working class better than a lot of people. The stupid test does not ask about that.

    I don’t want my kids working dangerous jobs. OMG how elitist of me.

    Ass.

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  7. Further, Dev, Kevin Williamson would no doubt score very high on this, based on his upbringing, and he is as Never Trump as they come. He eats and drinks the elite values when it comes to looking down on others, in a way only the nouveau riche can.

    But, hey, what do I know? I want my kinds not work crap jobs. That means I am some sort of out of touch monster.

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  8. I could care less about a stupid imperfect test. It means very little what number anyone got. Dev, got a higher number than me but there is a simple answer for this. I didn’t cheat enough on the right questions. Can I take the test again or just lie about the results?

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  9. Bryan G. Stephens:
    That means I am some sort of out of touch monster.

    It has been previously noted that Murray’s test (note that the original version in Coming Apart differs in some ways from the current version on the PBS site, but that is inevitable since it includes pop culture references such as television shows and movies which change over the years) weights early life experience more than one’s current lifestyle.  One could have grown up in a working class neighbourhood, worked at manual jobs during high school, had friends then and afterward which checked boxes, but won a scholarship to an ivy, hired by a think tank or administrative state agency, and be entirely within the bubble yet still have a high score on the test.  I think I ought to at least get a couple of points for using the phrase “hairdressers and cab drivers” at least five times in my writing every year.

    But it’s still a useful measure of how it can be that the pundits are so disconnected from how a majority or at least a large plurality of their fellow citizens perceive the world.

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  10. ?The quiz did not even ask whether you want your kids working at a job that makes them hurt every day. That would be a real dumb question anyway for which the only answers are “it depends” or maybe “if they want to do it.”  The quiz asked if YOU ever had a job that made you hurt every day.  I never did, still came in at 44. Would be higher for me too if McDonald’s were on the eating out list.

    Edit: My daughter probably would score about a 2 but she is a worker and a fighter and she faces the harsh and crazy side of life full on now- the quiz is just a little game to make a point, it’s not definitive.

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  11. I scored a 27. My observations are similar to those of VDH.

    I was living in Spokane Valley, Washington (a mostly white middle class/working class suburb of Spokane) at the time of the 2016 election. The community voted heavily for Trump, and if anything, people there will do the same later this year.

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  12. Bryan G. Stephens:
    That was uncalled for, and is exactly what I am talking about. 25 years in community mental health, I dare say I understand the trials of the very poor and working class better than a lot of people. The stupid test does not ask about that. I don’t want my kids working dangerous jobs. OMG how elitist of me. Ass.

    No, this is uncalled for. I didn’t call you an ass, just not much attuned to the middle class. You have just proven my point. To be honest, I have no idea what you’re talking about – other than you don’t know much of what goes on in the middle working class.

    No one said that makes anyone a monster. But VDH points out HIS connections with more mundane people, and the test looks to see what your experience OF middle working class lives are like.

    Being a Never Trumper is also irrelevant. All it says is that whoever that is does’t align his/her views of politics with the middle class of America. That most elitists don’t is true, but they aren’t the only ones. And some elitists do.

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  13. Devereaux:

    Bryan G. Stephens:
    That was uncalled for, and is exactly what I am talking about. 25 years in community mental health, I dare say I understand the trials of the very poor and working class better than a lot of people. The stupid test does not ask about that. I don’t want my kids working dangerous jobs. OMG how elitist of me. Ass.

    No, this is uncalled for. I didn’t call you an ass, just not much attuned to the middle class. You have just proven my point. To be honest, I have no idea what you’re talking about – other than you don’t know much of what goes on in the middle working class.

    Prove it. Prove what I don’t know about the working class. Prove I know nothing about working for a living. Ignore my best friend grew up that way and is still there. You are not at my table when I rant about my employees not being able to afford insurance. I work closely with the working class.

    You are a total ass for making any assumptions about me and what I know all because I don’t want my kids to be working class. Yes. I don’t want my kids to live with income insecurity. Yes, I don’t want my kids screwed over by the overclasses. What honest parent wants that. My wife was the first person in her family to go to college. Guess I don’t know about working class. She was only in the army, grew up rural poor. But I don’t know about those hardships according to you.

    Screw you and your high horse. I hope you can call in to a meet up so I can use proper language to tell you what I think of you.

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  14. I scored a 44 on the “bubble quiz.”   I would have scored higher but I don’t watch any television and have not seen those movies.

    I think the whole point of the quiz is to make a point with the folk who score in the 0 – 20 range.

    And, otherwise, I find it interesting that PBS used Charles Murray’s quiz.

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