12 thoughts on “US Declares Public Health Emergency — Coronavirus”

  1. Haakon Dahl:
    Is it time to panic yet?

    UPI (2020-01-31): “The number of confirmed coronavirus cases climbed on Friday to nearly 9,800 worldwide as the daily death toll in China hit a record 43 — bringing the total to 213 since the outbreak began last month.”

    CDC “Disease Burden of Influenza”:  This covers the regular seasonal influenza in the U.S.  Estimates for the 2018–2019 season, (see document for 95% confidence level bounds).  Symptomatic illnesses: 35,520,883.  Medical visits: 16,520,350.  Hospitalizations: 490,561.  Deaths: 34,157.

    This may be a doomsday plague, but so far it hasn’t come remotely near the numbers the U.S. experiences every winter from influenza that rarely make the news.

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  2. John Walker:
    This may be a doomsday plague, but so far it hasn’t come remotely near to the numbers which the U.S. experiences every winter that rarely makes the news.

    Not a valid comparison. For one thing, the ordinary flu deaths are mostly harvesting the weak who were near the end anyway. Healthcare workers are typically not victims. Second, this could get much worse, taxing the healthcare system beyond its capacity to respond. When nurses, physicians, and others in healthcare get infected or are overworked, then the real fun begins. It’s still early days.

    There’s a reason China quarantined tens of millions of people this year and not others. There is a well-founded concern that this could get out of control. Equities markets have not responded well either.

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  3. Haakon Dahl:
    From Politico.

    From that piece:

    He ordered any U.S. citizens returning from the center of the outbreak in China to be quarantined for two weeks.

    OK, US citizens but how about others coming from China? Were they already being quarantined?

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  4. drlorentz:

    Haakon Dahl:
    From Politico.

    From that piece:

    He ordered any U.S. citizens returning from the center of the outbreak in China to be quarantined for two weeks.

    OK, US citizens but how about others coming from China? Were they already being quarantined?

    I should hope so.  This dovetails *partially* with China’s refusal to allow PRC passport holders to leave.  But Ghanaians — I don’t know.

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  5. drlorentz:
    Real-time  Periodically updated map and stats on the virus. At the moment,
    total deaths=259
    total recovered=252

    One could argue that the death rate is on the order of 50% since deaths approximately equals recovered. Many more have been infected but many of those may still die.

    Edit: Correction of update rate.

    As SerpentZA pointed out, China calls a person recovered (they actually say “cured”) once they have been symptom-free for a week.  This means that recoveries should be compared to previous-week cases and deaths.

    That is, if it’s not all nonsense.

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  6. Haakon Dahl:

    drlorentz:
    Real-time  Periodically updated map and stats on the virus. At the moment,
    total deaths=259
    total recovered=252

    One could argue that the death rate is on the order of 50% since deaths approximately equals recovered. Many more have been infected but many of those may still die.

    Edit: Correction of update rate.

    As SerpentZA pointed out, China calls a person recovered (they actually say “cured”) once they have been symptom-free for a week.  This means that recoveries should be compared to previous-week cases and deaths.

    That is, if it’s not all nonsense.

    It probably is all nonsense, as SerpentZA indicated in his latest. The data is coming out of China and the ChiComs lie.

    I thought the incubation period was more like two weeks. Maybe I heard that from SerpentZA. Either way, it might take longer for people to die. There is no simple way to compute the death rate when the disease is spreading this rapidly. My basis for using those figures is that there is a lag between contracting the disease and dying from it that is roughly the same as the lag between contracting it and being declared disease free. If that’s true, the death rate is high.

    According to SerpentZA and his pal in their latest livestream, people were dropping dead in the street in China. In this fog of war, it’s hard to figure out what’s going on. I bought some N95 masks and other supplies as insurance. I hope not to need them but will be happy to have them if things go sideways: the way with all insurance.

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  7. drlorentz:
    According to SerpentZA and his pal in their latest livestream, people were dropping dead in the street in China. In this fog of war, it’s hard to figure out what’s going on.

    Virnobyl.

    I’ve read several books on Chernobyl and geeked out on some of the technical details which are still accessible (intellectually) to the layman.  I haven’t watched the recent show — shows bore me (with some exceptions).  I wonder how well the show conveys the fact that the real agent of harm is bureaucracy, not radiation, not sick birds, and not viruses.  Bureaucracy is the only one which scales well, creating the conditions where the others run rampant.

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  8. Haakon Dahl:
    I’ve read several books on Chernobyl and geeked out on some of the technical details which are still accessible (intellectually) to the layman.  I haven’t watched the recent show — shows bore me (with some exceptions).  I wonder how well the show conveys the fact that the real agent of harm is bureaucracy, not radiation, not sick birds, and not viruses.  Bureaucracy is the only one which scales well, creating the conditions where the others run rampant.

    I only saw two episodes of Chernobyl (the series).  They were riveting.  They expose bureaucratic and political issues with amazing detail.  It makes for great TV.

    (The reason I saw only two episodes is because we watched while staying with relatives.  There is no functional TV in our house.)

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