China has suddenly reported an increase to over 130% the previous day’s figure, now over 60,000. This sounds awful, but I am inclined to believe the explanation in accompanying reporting to the effect that this is the result new diagnostic criteria. This would make it a “fair ball,” an understandable byproduct of dealing with emergencies — stress on the “emergent” nature of emergencies. While I am always eager to call communists pieces of offal, in this case, the reporting seems consistent across numerous news outlets and several online dashboards, and the curves are consistent with the explanation. I DuckDuckGo’ed “Wuhan virus tracker” and hit all of the non-garbage links that came up.
The proof will be if the already-apparent tail-off in the new case rate continues at the same rate relative to the total. That is, if the second (edit: third?) diff’l of the total remains negative. Three days from now it might be said that the story is hanging together. One day from now it might turn out the other way.