1,002 thoughts on “Covid-19 Updates”

  1. 10 Cents:
    Here is a video taking a mask simulator. If you have time tell me what you think.

     

    Dovetails nicely with the antibody testing done in NYC and downstate NY.    Random testing in NYC near the end of April showed 21% had antibodies.    Separate testing of 27,000 healthcare workers showed only 11% had antibodies. So it suggests that masks / gloves / sanitary precautions make a big difference.

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  2. Here is today’s update for Switzerland [PDF], published at 06:00 UTC on 2020-05-24.  This report is updated every day, but always has the same URL: you need to look at the document to see whether today’s update has been posted.  Summary:

    • Cases tested positive: 30,736 with 11 new since yesterday
    • Deaths so far: 1641 unchanged since yesterday, 58% male, 42% female, median age 84
    • Tests administered: 370,464, of which 10% were positive, 46% male, 54% female
    • Median age of those tested positive: 52
    • Total cases hospitalised: 3926, 60% male, 40% female, median age 72
    • Cases per 100,000 population: 358, unchanged from yesterday
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  3. 10 Cents:

    How is your daughter doing?

    Good so far. She is five days into two weeks of heightened observation due to an exposure last week that I am guessing would have mandated quarantine two months ago. (Ref. ctlaw’s comment above on health care workers as a vector.) She is busy with the traumas that go with warm weather and lockdown easing. She will be rotating to another hospital soon where they also have no new masks.  It’ll be a bring your own N95 party I guess.

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  4. Just read an interesting thing about those “Breathable” face masks with with a one-way valve … including N-95 masks.    Those one-way valves are easier to breathe through because they do not filter exhaled air, so they don’t offer any protection to those around you.  Since most of mask-wearing by the general public is predicated  on masks – even DIY ones – ability to capture exhaled droplets, should folks be wearing these?

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  5. Ed K:
    Just read an interesting thing about those “Breathable” face masks with with a one-way valve … including N-95 masks.    Those one-way valves are easier to breathe through because they do not filter exhaled air, so they don’t offer any protection to those around you.  Since most of mask-wearing by the general public is predicated  on masks – even DIY ones – ability to capture exhaled droplets, should folks be wearing these?

    From my understanding it is not the air but the droplets. Doesn’t a mask with a one way valve hinder the spread of the droplets?

    I for one see masks as beneficial and one of the cheapest and easiest of the preventive measures. Sure they are not as comfortable as they could be but if it helps people get back to work they are good.

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  6. This is today’s update for Switzerland [PDF], published at 06:00 UTC on 2020-05-25.  This report is updated every day, but always has the same URL: you need to look at the document to see whether today’s update has been posted.  Summary:

    • Cases tested positive: 30,746 with 10 new since yesterday
    • Deaths so far: 1642 up one since yesterday, 58% male, 42% female, median age 84
    • Tests administered: 372,146, of which 10% were positive, 46% male, 54% female
    • Median age of those tested positive: 52
    • Total cases hospitalised: 3927, 60% male, 40% female, median age 72
    • Cases per 100,000 population: 358, unchanged from yesterday

    The SwissCovid contact tracing app for iOS and Android has entered its test phase.  The test is expected to be concluded on later than the end of June.  At the end of April a poll commissioned by the Federal Office of Public Health found than 70% of respondents welcomed the introduction of the app and 59% expected to install it themselves.  On May 28th, the complete source code of the app will be made available for public examination.

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  7. 10 Cents:
    Doesn’t a mask with a one way valve hinder the spread of the droplets?

    From what I’ve been reading … no.

    ”Exhaled air passes unfiltered into the environment, taking potential coronavirus droplets with it and defeating the mask’s one important purpose — protecting those around you.”

    “We want to protect you from me. And so, this valved N95 [mask] really doesn’t function appropriately in this COVID environment– either in the health care setting, or in the community,” said William Schaffner, MD, professor of preventive medicine and infectious disease at Vanderbilt University Medical Center.

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  8. Ed K:

    10 Cents:
    Doesn’t a mask with a one way valve hinder the spread of the droplets?

    From what I’ve been reading … no.

    ”Exhaled air passes unfiltered into the environment, taking potential coronavirus droplets with it and defeating the mask’s one important purpose — protecting those around you.”

    “We want to protect you from me. And so, this valved N95 [mask] really doesn’t function appropriately in this COVID environment– either in the health care setting, or in the community,” said William Schaffner, MD, professor of preventive medicine and infectious disease at Vanderbilt University Medical Center.

    I was thinking the mask would slow the speed of the air going out. It would not spread a sneeze or cough as far.

    This assumes the person wearing the “good”mask is a carrier. If the mask prevents infection it doesn’t matter if their breath goes out the mask. This story seems needlessly sensational.

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  9. 10 Cents:
    This assumes the person wearing the “good”mask is a carrier. If the mask prevents infection it doesn’t matter if their breath goes out the mask. This story seems needlessly sensational.

    Isn’t that exactly the point?    With so many  asymptomatic infections, mask wearing by the general public is intended to protect others from the wearer.    If I recall hearing the Surgeon General at a press conference displaying his bandana/mask saying “I wear my mask to protect you.   You wear yours to protect me”.   But if yours doesn’t protest me….

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  10. ctlaw:
    iOS

    My iPhone is telling me I have an update that needs to be installed.  I have been postponing it at every opportunity, but I know that eventually it will install itself regardless of what I do.

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  11. Wuhan Virus fatalities per capita was reported at PJ Media.  Then they disaggregated New York City:

        1. Belgium (791.76)
        2. Spain (573.38)
        3. UK (558.95)
        4. Italy (524.58)
        5. France (415.90)
        6. Sweden (391.87)
        7. Netherlands (338.01)
        8. Ireland (309.86)
        9. USA  (288.74)
        10. Switzerland (226.80)

    Disaggregate NYC:

        1. Downstate NY (1,771.86)
        2. Belgium (791.76)
        3. Spain (573.38)
        4. UK (558.95)
        5. Italy (524.58)
        6. France (415.90)
        7. Sweden (391.87)
        8. Netherlands (338.01)
        9. Ireland (309.86)
        10. USA sans downstate NY (233.44)

    Once you separate downstate New York from the rest of the United States, it jumps to the top (by a long shot), while the rest of the United States is at the bottom—barely edging out Switzerland.

    https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/matt-margolis/2020/05/24/the-united-states-still-doesnt-lead-the-world-in-coronavirus-deaths-n423763

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  12. MJBubba:
    Wuhan Virus fatalities per capita was reported at PJ Media.  Then they disaggregated New York City:

        1. Belgium (791.76)
        2. Spain (573.38)
        3. UK (558.95)
        4. Italy (524.58)
        5. France (415.90)
        6. Sweden (391.87)
        7. Netherlands (338.01)
        8. Ireland (309.86)
        9. USA  (288.74)
        10. Switzerland (226.80)

    Disaggregate NYC:

        1. Downstate NY (1,771.86)
        2. Belgium (791.76)
        3. Spain (573.38)
        4. UK (558.95)
        5. Italy (524.58)
        6. France (415.90)
        7. Sweden (391.87)
        8. Netherlands (338.01)
        9. Ireland (309.86)
        10. USA sans downstate NY (233.44)

    Once you separate downstate New York from the rest of the United States, it jumps to the top (by a long shot), while the rest of the United States is at the bottom—barely edging out Switzerland.

    https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/matt-margolis/2020/05/24/the-united-states-still-doesnt-lead-the-world-in-coronavirus-deaths-n423763

    Why did they ignore Japan? 🙂

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  13. <anger>

    I wear my mask to protect myself.  By protecting myself, I protect you.

    I did not appreciate guidance from government, nor from friends, nor from family, when people told me that I was too stupid to wear a mask, and that there was some better method to filter things out from the air entering my lungs than a literal FILTER on the air entering my lungs.

    If you think that masks don’t help the person who wears the mask, you’ve been successfully propagandized by a government which quelled a panic over unavailable masks by denigrating the masks and hazarding your very life in the process.  I understand if out of embarrassment and shame you now feel the need to keep up the charade.  All of this “malarkey” about touching your face, and an improper seal, and a moral hazard of somehow seeking out ever more infected patients to lick clean (tempting, I know) due to my brain short-circuiting because I have the flimsiest of filters in place — all of this was for some reason unconvincing to me.

    A “perfect” isolation suit (one which passes every test that it is possible for us to perform) and “perfect” protocols (performed without flaw apparent to any observing)  are still imperfect, and rely upon statistical strength, not a god-like perfection of molecular control.  Even my agnostic self finds it more credible that the Almighty could direct the fall of every sparrow and the greying of each hair than that all of human industry could absolutely dictate the course of a single molecule — reliably.  So let us admit that masks whatever the quality and whatever the training level of the masked person are all filters to some degree, as a perfect seal can never be obtained.  Your skin is porous.

    The mask is all about reducing the viral load (not sure if that’s the correct term, something about inoculation, dose, whatever) so that the amount of little viral animalcules that you inhale is low enough that statistically, they never gain the upper hand. The surgical-style “flat” masks that most of us wear are obviously not contenders for perfection.  They allow some fraction (let us say up to 33%) of inhalation to bypass the filter, and some greater fraction (let us say up to 66%) of exhalation to bypass the filter — exhaling inflates the mask, pushing through the mask-to-face interface with ease.  Fabric N95 “dome” masks, and even fancy rubber and plastic, cartridge-filter masks from 3M are variations on this theme.  They just have better percentages.  They don’t eliminate anything.  They reduce by some percentage.

    Every one of us has inhaled molecules exhaled by Jesus.  Every one of us has been exposed to this virus.  The question is, how many have not developed an immunity (to the virus, not to Jesus), how many have secretly developed an immunity, and how many have developed an immunity with all the fanfare of the illness?  The accompanying question is — which group are you in?  Have you been exposed enough, but not too much?

    No matter which group you are in, you should wear a mask.  If you are in the last group, then sure your mask-wearing is completely for the benefit of others (we think — still not a bad idea given the possible although unlikely scenario of reinfection with illness).  Anybody here confirmed COVID-19 positive?  Didn’t think so.  Then you are in the first two groups, that is, asymptomatic, and the mask is for your own benefit.

    So, this thing appears to have been far more widespread and far less lethal than was thought early on.  The two factors which saved many lives regardless of which scenario they’re subtracted from are social distancing and wearing masks.  Contact tracing and testing did not help you.

    Shutting down stores and staying at home undoubtedly helped a lot.  We have flattened the curve.  Now it is time to open up stores and return to business, and to life.  And to do so wearing a mask.

    In the case of a valved mask, it’s still a darned sight better for those around you than no mask at all.  It reduces the velocity and probably (I’m guessing here) increases the size of droplets.  And unless you have that thing strapped to your head like a wet cat, you were already spilling all over the place anyway.

    If you’re not wearing a mask, then good luck with the Jesus molecule.  You’ve forsaken helping yourself.

    </anger>

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  14. Apple’s trying to do the right thing.  They just — aren’t.

    Got this handy iPatch to cover both cameras on my phone.   There’s a reason that you can no longer remove the battery on your ankle bracelet.

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  15. MJBubba:
    Once you separate downstate New York from the rest of the United States, it jumps to the top (by a long shot), while the rest of the United States is at the bottom—barely edging out Switzerland.

    What happens if you disaggregate the hottest zones from each of the other countries as well?

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  16. Haakon Dahl:

    MJBubba:
    Once you separate downstate New York from the rest of the United States, it jumps to the top (by a long shot), while the rest of the United States is at the bottom—barely edging out Switzerland.

    What happens if you disaggregate the hottest zones from each of the other countries as well?

    I would expect that for every country you could find a way to disaggregate their hottest zones and get similar results to this analysis.  The point of the article was to counter some stupid stuff on the internet that shows the U.S.A. to be the worst Wuhan Virus infection area in the world.

    They were trying to make the case that not the U.S.A. but NYC should be considered the worst Wuhan Virus infection area in the world.

    I doubt if that is true, either.  I am guessing that Wuhan, Tehran and Milan are all worse (on a per capita basis), but I haven’t looked up Milan and those other cities don’t have published data that is worth analyzing.

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  17. 10 Cents:
    Why did they ignore Japan? 🙂

    They did not ignore Japan; they simply reported the top ten when sorting for cases of Wuhan Virus on a per capita basis.  Japan has done such a good job of dampening the Virus spread that they do not make the top ten.

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  18. Haakon Dahl:
    If you think that masks don’t help the person who wears the mask, you’ve been successfully propagandized by a government which quelled a panic over unavailable masks by denigrating the masks and hazarding your very life in the process.

    Agreed.  They lied.  They started lying in January and kept it up until March, by which time the internet was full of pushback against this transparent falsehood.

    In the process they lost a lot of credibility, ginned up a lot of distress and distrust, increased political polarization and fed several conspiracy theories.

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  19. Haakon Dahl:
    So, this thing appears to have been far more widespread and far less lethal than was thought early on.

    Yes to more widespread.  Yes less lethal than described, but still more lethal than the regular flu viruses that have been in circulation in recent decades.  Over time I expect the lethality to converge down to join the other flu viruses, but that will take a few years, probably.

    The two factors which saved many lives regardless of which scenario they’re subtracted from are social distancing and wearing masks.

    Agreed.  President Trump is to be commended for acting aggressively after we had our second death and the Diamond Princess data came in.  Despite vicious political opposition, he did the right thing.

    Contact tracing and testing did not help you.

    Not so fast.  If we had done a competent job of contact tracing and testing we probably could have done a better job of dampening the spread.  Japan and South Korea had a very different experience in this regard than we experienced in the U.S.A.

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  20. Haakon Dahl:

    Shutting down stores and staying at home undoubtedly helped a lot.  We have flattened the curve.

    Now it is time to open up stores and return to business, and to life.  And to do so wearing a mask.

    Yes.  Agree absolutely to all this.   Thanks.

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  21. If I have my statistic right, 1 out of 194 has contracted the disease and 1 out of 3311 has died in the US. That is more than I thought.
    In Japan,  cases are 1 in  7634  and deaths are 1 in 166,667.

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  22. JTOmland:

    Haakon Dahl:
    and rely upon statistical strength, not a god-like perfection of molecular control.

    In this video, Nassim Taleb talks about the benefits of masks given they are not perfect. Nassim Taleb on CNBC.

    This mirrors my thinking. Some things are so easy and effective to do. I can’t prove but I think Japan was saved a lot of problems because of the use of masks and hand washing. It was an easy sell here.

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