1,014 thoughts on “Covid-19 Updates”

  1. 10 Cents:
    Pareto principle?

    https://time.com/5842669/coronavirus-asymptomatic-transmission/

    That brings up a question I’ve had since people started discussing the way the virus attacks the lungs.

    Does the mechanism of infection have a significant effect on disease progression?

    If I inhale a spittle droplet from an infected person so that the infection starts in my lungs, am I screwed?

    In contrast, if that spittle droplet lands in my eye is there greater opportunity for my body to build up antibodies before the lungs get hit? Perhaps be asymptomatic?

    3+
    avataravataravatar
  2. This is today’s update for Switzerland [PDF], published at 06:00 UTC on 2020-05-28.  This report is updated every day, but always has the same URL: you need to look at the document to see whether today’s update has been posted.  Summary:

    • Cases tested positive: 30,796 with 20 new since yesterday
    • Deaths so far: 1655 up 6 since yesterday, 58% male, 42% female, median age 84
    • Tests administered: 385,822, of which 10% were positive, 46% male, 54% female
    • Median age of those tested positive: 52
    • Total cases hospitalised: 3935, 60% male, 40% female, median age 72
    • Cases per 100,000 population: 359, unchanged from yesterday

    The weekly statistical surveillance report [PDF] of physician visits for suspicion of COVID-19 has been basically unchanged for the last three weeks, most recently (week ending May 22) standing at 1.2% of consultations.

    The animated map showing the geographic distribution and number of cases has been updated to include ISO weeks 20 and 21.

    Switzerland: COVID-19 cases 2020 W09 through W21

    5+
    avataravataravataravataravatar
  3. 10 Cents:

    MJBubba:
    Grim milestone.  100,000 deaths attributed to Wuhan Virus.

    Of course the Washington Darkness Post celebrated by bashing President Trump.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/for-a-numbers-obsessed-trump-theres-one-he-has-tried-to-ignore-100000-dead/ar-BB14GDA2?ocid=spartanntp

    Washington Post? I thought it was dead.

    It was on the ropes when Jeff Bezos bought it for twice what it was worth in 2013.   He unleashed them to go Full-Leftist and forget “neutrality” and “both-sides-ism.”  They more than doubled their subscriber base.

    Now they are listed among the few media survivors.  They had 88 million unique visitors to their website in January, which compares to 104 million for NYT, 80 million for USAToday and 52 million for WallStreetJournal.

    3+
    avataravataravatar
  4. This is today’s update for Switzerland [PDF], published at 06:00 UTC on 2020-05-29.  This report is updated every day, but always has the same URL: you need to look at the document to see whether today’s update has been posted.  Summary:

    • Cases tested positive: 30,828 with 32 new since yesterday
    • Deaths so far: 1657 up 2 since yesterday, 58% male, 42% female, median age 84
    • Tests administered: 390,697, of which 10% were positive, 46% male, 54% female
    • Median age of those tested positive: 52
    • Total cases hospitalised: 3968, 60% male, 40% female, median age 72
    • Cases per 100,000 population: 359, unchanged from yesterday

    As the situation appears to have stabilised with little change over the last two weeks, this will be the last of these daily reports unless something dramatically changes.  I will still post updates on related topics such as loosening restrictions and opening the economy.  Here is the chart of cases reported per day from the first through yesterday.

    Switzerland: COVID-19 cases through 2020-05-29

    4+
    avataravataravataravatar
  5. And now, on this fine Saturday, we have today’s “Year of the Jackpot” chart.

    Atlanta Fed GDPNow, 2020Q2

    Since July 2011, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta has published a quarterly statistic called GDPNow, which aggregates quick-look figures of 13 components of GDP to provide snapshots before the final figure is published.  On 2020-05-29, the figure for the second quarter of 2020 was released.  And the number: −51.16.  The only negative figure recorded since 2011 (unfortunately, we can’t see figures back to 2008 or earlier recessions) was in the first quarter of 2020, when it was −0.97.

    A GDP contraction of more than 50% is a Year of the Jackpot kind of event, don’t you think?  And how’s the sunset looking today?

    3+
    avataravataravatar
  6. New Jersey update…

    Gov Murphy’s head count in long term care facilities is now over 6,000.   So I’m sure he’s proud.

    One of my neighbors, around the corner from me, has passed away from the virus. Guy next door tested positive for antibodies so he had it at some point.   He Said he felt poorly over a weekend in late March and thought it was odd that he couldn’t smell or taste anything.   But it went away quickly and he never got tested for the active virus.   Interesting, neither his wife nor kids tested positive for the antibodies.

    3+
    avataravataravatar
  7. New Jersey looks rough. And Connecticut was rough too, my daughter there has seen a lot of people die including an ICU nurse who presumably got it on the job. No way this is really just like the seasonal flu, she says. Of course she sees the worst cases, not the mild ones.

    Florida cases are on the order of 260 per 100,000 and lots of people think the whole thing is imaginary. New daily cases are not dropping, in fact they are rising a bit. But daily deaths are dropping slightly though it’s hard to be sure how much from the bar charts because reporting lags. So maybe the new cases are from more testing, or the virus has weakened, or treatment has improved.

    5+
    avataravataravataravataravatar
  8. It’s been a week since my last report from Switzerland, so here’s an update.

    Here is today’s update for Switzerland [PDF], published at 06:00 UTC on 2020-06-05.  This report is updated every day, but always has the same URL: you need to look at the document to see whether today’s update has been posted.  Summary:

    • Cases tested positive: 30,936 with 23 new since yesterday
    • Deaths so far: 1660 up 3 since last week, 58% male, 42% female, median age 84
    • Tests administered: 415,195, of which 9% were positive, 46% male, 54% female
    • Median age of those tested positive: 52
    • Total cases hospitalised: 3979, 60% male, 40% female, median age 71
    • Cases per 100,000 population: 360, up from 359 last Friday

    This is the chart of confirmed cases (by laboratory test) since the first reported in the country.

    Switzerland: COVID-19 cases through 2020-06-05

    The animated map showing the geographic distribution and number of cases has been updated to include ISO week 22.

    Switzerland: COVID-19 cases 2020W09 to 2020W22

    The next round of opening goes into effect to-morrow, 2020-06-06 and includes such items as:

    • Company meetings up to 300 people
    • Establishments such as casinos, amusement parks, animal parks, zoos and botanic gardens, spas, swimming pools
    • Summer tourism businesses such as campsites, mountain rail and cableways, toboggan runs, bike tracks and rope parks
    • Strip clubs, escort services and services offered by sex workers
    • Holiday camps for up to 300 children and young people
    • Hospitality sector: activities such as pool, darts and live music performances
      • Condition: Consumption only when seated (does not apply to discos, nightclubs and the like)
      • Restricted opening hours
    • Hospitality sector: Visits to restaurants for groups of more than 4 people
      • Conditions: Contact details of at least one member of the group must be taken
      • Consumption only when seated (does not apply to discos, nightclubs and the like)
      • Restricted opening hours
    • Political and civil society demonstrations of up to 300 people
    • Classroom teaching at upper secondary and vocational schools, higher education and other educational institutions
    • Sports training involving physical contact such as wrestling, boxing, American football and rugby
    • Sports competitions with up to 300 people
    • Events with up to 300 people

    Borders are expected to open to travellers from all EU and EFTA states and the UK on 2020-06-15.

    I had earlier mentioned that the home delivery grocery service owned by Swiss mega-retailer Migros, LeShop.ch, had been overwhelmed by demand and for a period of almost two months was unable to provide delivery dates or, when they could, often three weeks in the future.  By a combination of increasing capacity and reduced demand, this situation has been largely resolved.  Today, the CEO of LeShop sent a message to customers (in French) saying that things were now almost back to normal.  I checked, and for an order placed today, 2020-06-05, delivery options in the evening of next Tuesday (2020-06-09) and all days afterward are available.

    4+
    avataravataravataravatar
  9. Sadly, like some other states, the deaths in my State are predominantly from long term care facilities.  80 percent to be specific.

    Minnesota
    Deaths

    • Deaths: 1,170
      • Deaths among cases that resided in long-term care or assisted living facilities: 936
    2+
    avataravatar
  10. 10 Cents:

    JTOmland:
    This is somewhat old news, but  the CDC published fatality estimates.

     

    For symptomatic people the best estimates based on age groups are:

    0-49: 0.0005

    50-64: 0.002

    65+: 0.013

    Rnot of 2.5

    “We’re all going to DIE!!!”

    The sad thing is that there is no loudspeaker shouting these every two minutes like when numbers of 4 percent, 3 percent and 2 percent where initially proposed.  I don’t know how the CDC determined these numbers.  It just says they are based on science.  So don’t be a science denier.

    2+
    avataravatar
  11. 10 Cents:

    JTOmland:
    This is somewhat old news, but  the CDC published fatality estimates.

     

    For symptomatic people the best estimates based on age groups are:

    0-49: 0.0005

    50-64: 0.002

    65+: 0.013

    Rnot of 2.5

    “We’re all going to DIE!!!”

    I don’t know what those numbers mean. The death rate among symptomatic people over 65 is 1.3 percent?

    The death rate overall among people diagnosed with Covid19 has been 4-5 percent. In Connecticut it has been almost ten percent.

    We ARE all gonna die, though probably of something else.

    1+
    avatar
  12. I don’t know what the data mean also. The Japanese data have 5% of confirmed cases dying. The confusing thing in the CDC data is what is a symptomatic person. For the death rates to be so low these people must have very minor symptoms and probably are not hospitalized.

    0

  13. Jojo:

    10 Cents:

    JTOmland:
    This is somewhat old news, but  the CDC published fatality estimates.

     

    For symptomatic people the best estimates based on age groups are:

    0-49: 0.0005

    50-64: 0.002

    65+: 0.013

    Rnot of 2.5

    “We’re all going to DIE!!!”

    I don’t know what those numbers mean. The death rate among symptomatic people over 65 is 1.3 percent?

    The death rate overall among people diagnosed with Covid19 has been 4-5 percent. In Connecticut it has been almost ten percent.

    We ARE all gonna die, though probably of something else.

    Yes take the number times a hundred and that is the fatality estimate in percent.

    As far as death rate among people diagnosed. In any given year most people do not go to the hospital when they have the flue.  Most people that I know have to be very sick before they will go to the hospital and have never went for the flue.  If the test is given only to those that are the most sick, the percentage that get hospitalized or die will be high.

    I think I saw early on that for the flue 80% of the people that test positive are hospitalized and 20% of those die.  That means that in a normal year if one were to calculate the death rate on officially diagnosed patients it would be 1.6%.  Very few are ever tested in a normal year and the numbers in a normal year are projected from this surveillance testing.

    As I noted in my reply to Dime.  I didn’t see an explanation of how they determined their numbers.  I assume some testing was ongoing.

    The problem from day one with the information available was that the denominator was not known.  It cannot be determine by testing people that go to the hospital because they are ill.

    2+
    avataravatar
  14. I have serious concerns about a second outbreak centered on SoCA and AZ.
    I had been looking at New Cases to get a feel for what’s going on.    But without knowing how many tests are being done, it’s hard to interpret new case numbers.    If new cases are going up, does that mean that there are more actual cases in the population?   Or is that indicative of more testing being done?    But while lots of places post New Case data, historical data about testing has been hard for me to find.     But The Coronavirus Tracking Project has this available and I’ve been looking at the Percentage of new tests that come back Positive for Covid19.     The % Positive number should track along with the number of actual active cases in the population.   I’ve been tracking a 7 day moving average of % Positive tests.
    Places where things were bad in Mar-April, But better in May-June, like Minnesota and NJ look like:

    Places where things never got out of hand like Florida and Tennessee look like this:

    But places where there is an increasing number of actual cases in the population will have an increasing percent of tests coming back positive     SoCA and AZ look kind’a scary:

    edit     I have problems with the CA dataset   Pulling through CA graphic and showing AZ only

     

     

    And I’m a bit troubled by the recent trends in neighbors like Oregon and Texas where things were looking great until a gentle increase in recent days.

    Something to keep an eye on.

    7+
    avataravataravataravataravataravataravatar
  15. Ed K:
    Something to keep an eye on.

    The slight upticks are expected for places like Tennessee, Florida and Texas due to the lockdown ending and phased returns to regular business.

    2+
    avataravatar

Leave a Reply