1,040 thoughts on “Covid-19 Updates”

  1. The animated map showing the geographic distribution and number of cases in Switzerland has been updated through ISO week 26.  You can see what I’ve been calling “the blip” in the last two frames (weeks 25 and 26).

    Switzerland: COVID-19 cases, 2020W09 through 2020W26
    The daily report for 2020-07-04 shows 97 cases yesterday, with the “bump” becoming apparent in the chart of daily new cases.

    Switzerland: COVID-19 summary 2020-07-04

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  2. Seriously, folks — by this point in the Covid Scam, we all know that “cases” are good!  The more, the better!!

    “Cases” mean that people are getting exposed to the virus and are developing antibodies, usually without even realizing they have been infected.  Known “cases” are going up because we are doing more testing — that is all.  Known “cases” are probably just the tip of a much larger iceberg of people who have already been functionally naturally inoculated against C-19 through mild infection, but won’t realize it until they themselves get tested.

    “Cases” are good, deaths are bad.  And deaths are going down to a low level — which is why the Usual Suspects don’t talk about them.

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  3. Jojo:
    I think “cases” means tested positive for active virus, not tested for antibodies.

    But I like the optimism.

    Good question.  Anybody know the answer?  Is the answer universal, or variable depending on the source?

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  4. Here is a link to an article by an eminent Swiss epidemiologist immunologist. He says that it was a mistake to label this coronavirus as “novel” and he also disagrees with the notion that there are many asymptomatic infected spreaders. Instead, he believes there is already widespread immunity due to previous exposure of the population to related coronaviruses; that this one shares enough antigens with coronaviruses circulating for years to account for the much more effective immunity than is widely believed. As well, his honest and straightforward writing style is a refreshing contrast to the usual timidity and politically/scientifically-correct blather.

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  5. Roxie:

    Jojo:
    I think “cases” means tested positive for active virus, not tested for antibodies.

    But I like the optimism.

    Good question.  Anybody know the answer?  Is the answer universal, or variable depending on the source?

    I learned from the Swiss article at civilwestman’s  link that the tests are for virus, not necessarily active live virus. So if what they are picking up is only bits of dead virus in effect they are showing immunity not an active infection. Still that would be recorded as a “case.” There are antibody tests also but I don’t think those are reported as “cases” when positive.

    People usually don’t get tested unless they have symptoms, so if the positive result is just from dead virus bits, they are sick with something else. Which is possible.

    The Swiss article breezily says the virus goes away in summer, which is how it’s worked in Switzerland as shown by their testing. It hasn’t worked that way in Florida or many other states as shown by our testing.

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  6. Jojo:
    People usually don’t get tested unless they have symptoms, so if the positive result is just from dead virus bits, they are sick with something else. Which is possible

    I’m not sure about that limit. If I became symptomatic and then tested positive, likely all the asymptomatic people in my office would get tested.

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  7. ctlaw:

    Jojo:
    People usually don’t get tested unless they have symptoms, so if the positive result is just from dead virus bits, they are sick with something else. Which is possible

    I’m not sure about that limit. If I became symptomatic and then tested positive, likely all the asymptomatic people in my office would get tested.

    There is still a strange and unexplained phenomenon as to PCR testing for virus on mucous membranes (i.e., most of the testing which we read about). The results are shockingly low, everywhere. Remember, especially during the initial spike in March/April, pretty much only ones tested were people with fevers and obvious respiratory symptoms; some were turned away for insufficient symptoms back then. The positive rate – across many geographic locales – was around 10%. I do not understand how it could be that low. Surely, these sick people, during a pandemic, were not all suffering from some other viral illness whose symptoms were the same as Covid 19. I have seen reports (who knows if they are true) that the positive test rates recently are in the range of 20%. Given the variables involved in sampling and testing, it is the similar order of magnitude of positive tests across highly varied jurisdictions which baffles me. Could the test itself have 80 – 90% false negative rate? Unlikely, one would think.

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  8. Unbeknown to most of us, the medical profession has been tracking “Influenza-Like Illnesses“, ILI, for years.  And what this seems to show is that there have been many illness-causing agents circulating for years without being specifically identified.  See, for example:  https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/veterinary-science-and-veterinary-medicine/influenza-like-illness

    Interestingly, influenza only causes 35–45% of ILI cases during peak seasons.

    Has Covid-19, or some very close cousin, been circulating for years?  How would one go about proving that it has not, when maybe 2/3 of the diseases which present fairly similarly to C-19 were already endemic, although not tied to a specific Chinese-identified virus?

    The optimistic parts, which have been established with high certainty since the Diamond Princess cruise ship incident, are that (1) about 80% of people exposed to the virus will not contract the disease;  (2) about 80% of the 20% who do contract the disease will have no or negligible symptoms;  (3) the risk of serious illness and mortality is largely limited to those who are old (75+) and/or have pre-existing conditions.

    There was no justification for Lock Downs.  And there is no justification for the media’s continuing panic-mongering.

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  9. Gavin Longmuir:
    And there is no justification for the media’s continuing panic-mongering.

    Of course there is.

    Their goals for the way they report on the Wuhan Virus has nothing to do with health.

    The reporting is intended to inspire fear and to persuade politicians to make policy decrees that continue to hinder economic recovery.   The overall aim of the news media is to prevent the re-election of President Trump.

    They have just enough truth in their claims to make their Fake News sound plausible to low-information voters.

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  10. The animated map showing the geographic distribution and number of cases in Switzerland has been updated through ISO week 27.  The progression of the second wave from weeks 23 through 27 is dismaying.

    Switzerland: COVID-19 cases, 2020W09 through 2020W27

    Here is today’s daily summary report.  The bump at the right is now clearly defined, but does not appear to be accelerating.

    Switzerland: COVID-19 status 2020-07-12

    There have been no new deaths in the last week.

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  11. With the mandate that face coverings must be worn in all shops and supermarkets in England as of 2020-07-24 with a fine of £100 for non-compliance, James Delingpole has announced his “Rainbow Worrier” branded face masks.

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  12. 10 Cents:
    Roxie, any news on Egypt and Peru?

    Just spoke (Sunday with my peruvian friend, who told me that lockdown is over because people decided that it was over.  Period. Too bad about governmental rules.  There are cases, there are deaths, but people are fed up, day workers need to work every day or starve on days they don’t work, people are heading out any way they cn to home villages, towns, being turned away or denied entry to communities en route because of suspicion of contagion.  Biggest drains are high demand for individual oxygen supplies, ventilators, and, worst of all, effective medicines, like the relatively cheap antimalarial (name escapes me just now) take a month to reach outlying provinces, where populations are immunologically naive (unexposed to packed population general viruses common in cities).

     

    Egypt?  The Egyptian Museum Cairo, the one in Tahrir Square is ope again, although staff are concerned.  The country claims to have set up precautions including disinfection stations and procedures that have apparently been approved by higher authorities as safe for travel except for the Red Sea port /holiday destination of Hurghada, and they’re encouraging tourism.  The project I’m involved with my finally be able to re-start in September.  I miss my fieldwork and am investigating travel options to Cairo, but things are a bit complicated with needing to get from my beloved Isle to some place with an international airport.

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  13. Another “Year of the Jackpot” chart shows that the economic consequences of these lockdowns are trickling all through the economy.

    U.S. mortgages: transition from current to 30 days past due

    This is the percentage of home mortgages which made the transition from current to 30 days past due plotted from 2007 to the present.  The “mortgage crisis” of 2008 barely looks like a mild hump on the chart at this scale.  The current rate, 3.4%, exceeds anything since these data began to be collected in 1999.  According to the Mortgage Bankers’ Association, 8.2% of all mortgages in the U.S. are currently past due or, in banker-speak, “forbearance”.  An article at Wolf Street discusses the data and their interpretation.

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  14. The Atlantic, which has been operating the COVID Tracking Project, published an in-depth analysis of the situation in the U.S. on 2020-07-15, “A Second Coronavirus Death Surge Is Coming”, which argues that we are now seeing a completely predictable upturn in the number of deaths following the exploding number of confirmed cases, due to the known lag between infection and death for patients who die of the disease.

    Despite political leaders trivializing the pandemic, deaths are rising again: The seven-day average for deaths per day has now jumped by more than 200 since July 6, according to data compiled by the COVID Tracking Project at The Atlantic. By our count, states reported 855 deaths today, in line with the recent elevated numbers in mid-July.

    The deaths are not happening in unpredictable places. Rather, people are dying at higher rates where there are lots of COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations: in Florida, Arizona, Texas, and California, as well as a host of smaller southern states that all rushed to open up.

    The deaths are also not happening in an unpredictable amount of time after the new outbreaks emerged. Simply look at the curves yourself. Cases began to rise on June 16; a week later, hospitalizations began to rise. Two weeks after that—21 days after cases rose—states began to report more deaths. That’s the exact number of days that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has estimated from the onset of symptoms to the reporting of a death.

    COVID-19 U.S.: tests, cases, hospitalisations, deaths

    New York City is and probably will remain the worst-case scenario. New York City has lost 23,353 lives. That’s 0.28 percent of the city’s population. If, as some antibody-prevalence surveys suggest, 20 percent of New Yorkers were infected, that’s an infection-fatality rate of more than 1.3 percent, which exceeds what the CDC or anyone else is planning for. To put it in the same terms discussed here, New York City saw 2,780 deaths per million people. A similar scenario across the South and West would kill over 550,000 more Americans in just a few months, moving the country to 680,000 dead. It is unthinkable, and yet, 130,000 deaths—the current national death toll—was once unthinkable, too.

    That’s still not the worst-case scenario for a truly uncontained outbreak, in which serious measures are not taken. For months, most public-health officials have argued that the infection-fatality rate—the number of people who die from all infections, detected and undetected, symptomatic and asymptomatic—was somewhere between 0.5 and 1 percent. The CDC’s latest estimates in its planning scenarios range from 0.5 to 0.8 percent. Take that lower number and imagine that roughly 40 percent of the country becomes infected. That’s 800,000 lives lost.

    Read the whole thing.

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  15. I often look to Switzerland to see what is possible (in the good sense) when it comes to societal issues. There appears to be a successful mitigation (compare to ‘suppression’ which is the goal of lockdown) underway – i.e. while the number of daily cases has increased from the lows of early May through mid-June, they are not increasing; they seem to have reached a plateau of 75 – 140 new cases per day. This should be quite manageable for the health system. Noteworthy is the fact that Switzerland is mostly open for business, with the exception of tourism. Those arriving by air from most other places, I think, must quarantine themselves upon arrival for 14 days. I don’t know how this is being managed.

    Compared to the US, I believe the Swiss population is more inclined to wear masks when gathering and to maintain social distancing (and be generally neat, clean and tidy). By way of contrast, in my work as physician in a detox facility, the patients must be constantly reminded to wear their masks – otherwise they don’t. They are housed, obviously, in an indoor facility which is not a hospital. I suspect the building is not required to exchange air as often as hospitals, for example. I surely regard it as a likely place for contagion and am, frankly, scared I may be infected there, despite my wearing maximum protection. With 20 or so patients on the detox unit and 50+ in residential rehab, I am very surprised we have not had any cases (yet). As well, patients are asked if they have traveled before admission. As is the nature of addicts, we have learned (without investigating – it just came out, inadvertently) that several had, in fact, just returned from hotspots. It is really a great thing to know with certainty that the virus eschews SJW’s, Antifa ‘gatherings’ and BLM riots protests . That knowledge via courtesy of comrade De Blasio and Pravda CNN is, of course, peremptory.

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  16. Beginning in August, Google is going to censor news about Wuhan Virus.

    • Google next month will begin preventing content about health crises that contradicts scientific consensus from running ads through its platforms.

    • The company already prohibits ad and publisher content that makes harmful claims about disease prevention and unsubstantiated cures, including anti-vaccine promotions or content that encourages users to forgo treatment.

    • Google is now taking it a step further and updating its policies for advertisers and publishers to prohibit claims like “The Covid-19 vaccine is an attempt to genetically modify the population.”

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/17/google-to-ban-ads-on-coronavirus-conspiracy-stories.html

    Big Tech electioneering is ramping up.

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  17. The animated map showing the geographic distribution and number of cases in Switzerland has been updated through ISO week 28.

    Switzerland: COVID-19 cases, 2020W09 through 2020W28

    Here is today’s daily summary report.  In terms of new cases, the second wave, which began around the end of June, seems to be in a steady state situation, neither accelerating or falling.  For the second consecutive week, there were no new deaths from the disease.

    Switzerland: COVID-19 daily report 2020-07-18

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