1,094 thoughts on “Covid-19 Updates”

  1. A good news update from Memphis.

    Updated 8/17/2020

    New Shelby County cases
    229

    Additional deaths
    4

    Active cases
    4,005

    Tests performed
    2,181

    Day’s positivity rate
    10.5%

    Overall positivity rate
    10.8%

    Total tests
    233,114

    Percentage of ICU beds in use
    88%

    ICU beds available
    52

    Percentage of acute care beds in use
    87%

    Acute care beds available
    321

    Source: Shelby County Health Department


    The fall-off at the end is the past two weeks.  The red line is the 7-day moving average of new cases.

    Most private schools started last Thursday.   Public schools are operating on a partly-in-person/partly virtual goofy mode, starting today.   It is going to be real interesting to have a new look at this chart in two weeks.

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  2. Further regarding Memphis, just for completeness.  Shelby County is 41% Caucasian.   Wuhan Virus patients in Shelby County are 20% Caucasian.

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  3. Well, my son returned to UNC-Chapel Hill August 3. Classes started last Monday Aug. 10. Students just could not follow the guidelines. There have been 4 “clusters” of COVID-19 cases in the last week: 3 in residence halls and 1 in a fraternity. 187 students are in isolation and 380 are quarantined.

    Today the university announced that it’s switching to all remote instruction for undergrads on Wednesday August 19. Not sure what the deal will be with residence halls, refunds, etc.

    They couldn’t even make it through 2 weeks of in-person classes.

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  4. danok1:
    Well, my son returned to UNC-Chapel Hill August 3. Classes started last Monday Aug. 10. Students just could not follow the guidelines. There have been 4 “clusters” of COVID-19 cases in the last week: 3 in residence halls and 1 in a fraternity. 187 students are in isolation and 380 are quarantined.

    Today the university announced that it’s switching to all remote instruction for undergrads on Wednesday August 19. Not sure what the deal will be with residence halls, refunds, etc.

    They couldn’t even make it through 2 weeks of in-person classes.

    Why did they decide that having clusters of Virus cases is a problem?   How seriously ill are these students?  Can’t the Virus-positive students take remote instruction while everyone else proceeds?

    I am thinking that university administrators have drunk the Kool-aid.  They are doing their part to prevent a Trump recovery, even at the expense of their own institutions, their own communities, and, eventually, their own jobs.

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  5. MJBubba:

    danok1:
    Well, my son returned to UNC-Chapel Hill August 3. Classes started last Monday Aug. 10. Students just could not follow the guidelines. There have been 4 “clusters” of COVID-19 cases in the last week: 3 in residence halls and 1 in a fraternity. 187 students are in isolation and 380 are quarantined.

    Today the university announced that it’s switching to all remote instruction for undergrads on Wednesday August 19. Not sure what the deal will be with residence halls, refunds, etc.

    They couldn’t even make it through 2 weeks of in-person classes.

    Why did they decide that having clusters of Virus cases is a problem?   How seriously ill are these students?  Can’t the Virus-positive students take remote instruction while everyone else proceeds?

    I am thinking that university administrators have drunk the Kool-aid.  They are doing their part to prevent a Trump recovery, even at the expense of their own institutions, their own communities, and, eventually, their own jobs.

    I don’t think the virus is spreading very much in classes. The students are in very close living quarters, making it relatively easy for disease to spread. Add in parties and other socializing, and the clusters will become widespread.

    I’ll also add that Carolina has an open campus, so the town of Chapel Hill and the Orange County health department are coming down hard on the university. The OCHD advised UNC not to reopen the campus for the fall semester.

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  6. Covid 19 brain fog.

    Even people who were never sick enough to go to a hospital, much less lie in an ICU bed with a ventilator, report feeling something as ill-defined as “Covid fog” or as frightening as numbed limbs. They’re unable to carry on with their lives, exhausted by crossing the street, fumbling for words, or laid low by depression, anxiety, or PTSD.

    As many as 1 in 3 patients recovering from Covid-19 could experience neurological or psychological after-effects of their infections, experts told STAT, reflecting a growing consensus that the disease can have lasting impact on the brain. Beyond the fatigue felt by “long haulers” as they heal post-Covid, these neuropsychological problems range from headache, dizziness, and lingering loss of smell or taste to mood disorders and deeper cognitive impairment. Dating to early reports from China and Europe, clinicians have seen people suffer from depression and anxiety. Muscle weakness and nerve damage sometimes mean they can’t walk.

    https://www.statnews.com/2020/08/12/after-covid19-mental-neurological-effects-smolder/

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  7. Danoli:  “Add in parties and other socializing, and the clusters will become widespread.”

    Surely widespread clusters among the young is exactly what we want to see!

    The evidence is incontrovertible — the young have negligible mortality risk from Covid-19 (unless they have pre-existing conditions).  And developing population immunity requires lots of people to be exposed to the virus and develop natural resistance.  UNC is doing precisely the wrong thing — but they are Academics, after all.  What else would we expect?

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  8. MJBubba quotes:  “Dating to early reports from China and Europe, clinicians have seen people suffer from depression and anxiety.”

    Of course those people are depressed & anxious — and rightly so;  they are Europeans!

    Sorry.  Could not resist.  I will leave now.  🙂

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  9. The animated map showing the geographic distribution and number of cases in Switzerland has been updated through ISO week 33.

    Switzerland: COVID-19 cases 2020W09 to 2020W33

    Here is today’s daily summary report.

    Switzerland: COVID-19 status 2020-08-21

    The number of cases reported continues its slow but steady climb, while the number of hospitalisations and deaths remain largely flat and at low levels.  The geographical map continues to show a slow spread both geographically and in the number of cases in clusters.  There were four new deaths in the last week, up from three the previous week.

    The list of countries from which travellers arriving in Switzerland must self-quarantine for 10 days was revised on 2020-08-20.

    • Removed: Saudi Arabia, Equatorial Guinea, Sao Tome and Principe, Serbia, Singapore
    • Added: Albania, Andorra, Aruba, Belgium, Belize, Gibraltar, Guam, India, Faroe Islands, Malta, Monaco, Namibia
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  10. The Bureau of Transportation Statistics recently buffed up their site with a page that helps you drill down into travel patterns to see how travel has been affected by the Wuhan Virus.  This page has interactive maps and charts full of county-level trip data.

    https://www.bts.gov/daily-travel

    an example:

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  11. From the National Academies:

    Now Available

    Discussion Draft of the
    Preliminary Framework for Equitable Allocation of COVID-19 Vaccine

    Review and Comment [nap.us4.list-manage.com]

    Public input is essential, especially from groups disproportionately affected by COVID-19. Learn more on the study webpage. [nap.us4.list-manage.com]

    Written Comment Period: September 1 – 4

    The Discussion Draft of the Preliminary Framework for Equitable Allocation of COVID-19 Vaccine [nap.us4.list-manage.com] is now available to download for free. Members of the public may submit written comments for consideration by the study committee as they work to finalize the report (as individuals or on behalf of an organization). The comment period will be open for 4 days, from 12:00 p.m. ET on Tuesday, September 1, until 11:59 p.m. ET on Friday, September 4. All materials and comments received will be placed in the committee’s Public Access File, and may be provided to the public upon request.

    Review and Comment [nap.us4.list-manage.com]

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  12. 10 Cents:
    Roxie, my heart sank when I read how high the death rate was in Peru. I truly hope your friends are okay.

    My personal friends are okay, but the immunologically naive folk on the Eastern slope of the Andes are not.  And the lovely leftist government can’t seem to get even basic medicines to them in less than a month.

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  13. Peru situation just got closer to home.  My friend’s brother appears to be terminal.  An overweight, diabetic, over-60 MD, who was diagnosed with Covid-19 about a month ago and who has been on a ventilator for at least a fortnight and in a coma  about that long, has now also been diagnosed with a staphlyococcus infection.  His wife and daughter, both also MDs, have had the virus but recovered quickly.  I received this update in my morning email.  What does one say except ‘I’m so sorry, praying for all of you, tell me if there’s anything else I can do’?  The whole quietly basically non-religious family have said that all they can do is pray for a miracle.  No atheists in foxholes.

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  14. Here is an update on the situation in Switzerland.  This is the daily update as of 2020-10-09.

    Switzerland: COVID-19 2020-10-10

    From the standpoint of “cases” we now appear to be entering a second wave, with four consecutive days in the last week of more than 1000 new cases reported, a level not seen since last April.  Hospitalisations and deaths remain at a low and apparently stable level, with 15 deaths attributed to the disease in the last two weeks.

    Here is the animated graphic of the course of the pandemic so far, updated through ISO week 40, which last week doesn’t look encouraging.

    Switzerland: COVID-19 cases 2020W09 through 2020W40

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  15. So, in the last 2 weeks, Switzerland & Liechtenstein have run 140,091 tests for the dreaded Covid.

    6.5% of those tests were positive (including multiple tests run on the same person) — 9,106 positives.

    That resulted in 8,305 “cases” — although the proper medical definition of “case” requires the individual to have signs & symptoms of the disease, not merely to have a positive test on a healthy asymptomatic person.

    Assuming the situation is not changing drastically, around 8,300 “cases” in a 2 week period result in 15 deaths — 0.18% of positive tests, or 0.01% of the tested population.

    For context, in the last 2 weeks, approximately 2,600 human beings died in Switzerland from all causes, assuming 2020 is similar to previous years.  The 15 deaths with/from Covid thus represent a maximum increase in the Swiss death rate of less than 1%.

    Some “pandemic”!

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  16. Compared with Q2 2019, the number of passengers carried decreased by more than 96% in all 19 EU Member States with available Q2 2020 data.

    So, for each 20 passengers going through Airport Security kabuki theater last year, there is only 1 going through this year.  Would it be impolite to ask if the number of security screeners has also been cut by a factor of 20?  Or even by a factor of 2?  Or are most of them now Working From Home?

    I know!  I know!  Stupid questions.

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  17. Gavin Longmuir:
    Compared with Q2 2019, the number of passengers carried decreased by more than 96% in all 19 EU Member States with available Q2 2020 data.

    So, for each 20 passengers going through Airport Security kabuki theater last year, there is only 1 going through this year.  Would it be impolite to ask if the number of security screeners has also been cut by a factor of 20?  Or even by a factor of 2?  Or are most of them now Working From Home?

    I know!  I know!  Stupid questions.

    It’s not Q2 anymore. Undoubtedly, the traffic has bounced back. Certainly, it has in the US. Furthermore, Western Europe is full of bedwetters so I’d expect recovery to be slower there than in the US. I happened to be by KLAX yesterday afternoon. Anecdotally, I can report takeoffs were at pre-WuFlu levels.

    Much as I have contempt for government bureaucracy, it would not have been practical to fire 90% of the TSA screeners. Granted, they would have been laid off for a few months in the private sector. That’s not the way civil service works. Actually, it’s not the way any large organization works, public or private.

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