921 thoughts on “Covid-19 Updates”

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  1. MJBubba:
    Prison Industries was very serious about their businesses.  Part of the training for inmates was learning the regulations from FDA, OSHA, plus three other relevant sources.  Regulatory compliance was reviewed from the initial design of the building.  It was more complicated because of all the security provisions.  But it was really involved, and the guys who were in charge of the project had a policy of not cutting any corners, because that would be training the inmates in a bad approach to the work.

    Don’t misunderstand me.  I am not saying that prisons cannot manufacture to regulations.  Nor is it that the actions taken to have the prisons fill an emergency need is wrong.   .

    My main complaint is that Cuomo is being dishonest in comparing costs and is promoting Government solutions as better and lower cost than private industry.  They either violated regulations or they got approval expedited because of the emergency.  The FDA does not under normal circumstances approve the manufacturing of a product in two weeks regardless of whether you are FDA approved for other products.

    If he would have said that the prisoner network was being utilized to help in a crisis, I would have been happy to hear it.

    However, his statement that the price of private hand sanitizer is egregious price gauging and touting that the state can make it cheaper and better is likely either a lie or he is uniformed.  I  see it as a way to propagate disinformation in support of government control over private industry.

    Telling the public that the private industry is egregiously gauging in a time of crisis better be fully true or you should be held accountable for defamation.  Since corporations are so beholden to the power of the government, no corporate management has the courage to press these issues.   You wouldn’t want the FDA, OSHA, IRS, FBI, or ATF shutting down your business.

    On the humorous side:  I wonder how the prison deals with the regulations that requires you to encourage protected classes to apply for positions including those where diversity disparity exists within the organization.  Are they going out soliciting more women to become prisoners?  I think that only applies to those with Federal contracts.

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  2. JTOmland:
    My main complaint is that Cuomo is being dishonest….

    I am pretty sure you are correct about Cuomo.

    The deal here is not that hand sanitizer and face masks are being produced with prison labor.  The deal is the false advertising, spin, slander and fearmongering that gets layered on top of it.

    Unless more information is forthcoming, I would expect that the products produced by prison labor meet all applicable standards.

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  3. My county (home of Memphis) now has 269 Covid 19 cases, the most of any Tennessee counties.  No deaths (three statewide).  Total cases for Tennessee is 1373 on Saturday, up by 170 for the day.

    We had at least three independent seedings of coronavirus 19 which came from people who had been to New Orleans for Mardi Gras.   There was another independent seeding from New York.

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  4. 10 Cents:

    Jojo:
    I just got a text from my daughter (a second year resident living 1000 miles from me) that her intern tested positive. I think this is someone she works with closely all the time. I have mentioned that they don’t have proper protective equipment.

    I don’t know what all the implications are but none are good.

    Keep us updated.

    More info: The test took 11 days to get results but the good news is his symptoms were mild and he felt recovered days ago aside from no sense of smell. So perhaps he has an immunity now. Also not too too likely he infected my daughter anyway. She feels ok now except for tired. Although it seems highly unlikely she will make it through this uninfected.

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  5. Jojo:

    10 Cents:

    Jojo:
    I just got a text from my daughter (a second year resident living 1000 miles from me) that her intern tested positive. I think this is someone she works with closely all the time. I have mentioned that they don’t have proper protective equipment.

    I don’t know what all the implications are but none are good.

    Keep us updated.

    More info: The test took 11 days to get results but the good news is his symptoms were mild and he felt recovered days ago aside from no sense of smell. So perhaps he has an immunity now. Also not too too likely he infected my daughter anyway. She feels ok now except for tired. Although it seems highly unlikely she will make it through this uninfected.

    I worry about her mother. (It’s hard being that far away.)

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  6. My Florida county decided onFriday not to do a lockdown yet but just the statewide restrictions- no restaurants, parks, beaches, etc and encourage voluntary self quarantine. We show about 10-12 new diagnoses a day for the past 5days and no deaths so far, not too bad. Either they stopped testing or the isolation is working. A woman in my building tested positive. My office and  many others are mostly working from home now. Half the people in the grocery store are wearing masks ( or me with a bandanna haha) even four days ago almost no one was. There were a few boxes of eggs for a change, with a sign to please only buy one.

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  7. I talked to my brother in Washington state. He was gloating about how he was an essential worker.

    He told me some funny memes. One was of children in a classroom and then children being homeschooled. “Just like that prayer and spanking are back in school.”

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  8. My sister-in-law is Ellen Heber Katz (virologist) over in Philly. She is working on a CV -19 vaccine as well. Brother David assists her. All the medical students/faculty  are working round the clock 0nly the undergrads have gone home.

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  9. A situation developed over the past few days that provided the opportunity for me to visit an Emergency Room and also briefly be in hospital.

    Surprises?   Yes,  At the free-standing Emergency Facility, I think I was the only patient.   So the service was great!   I did hear the staff talking while we were waiting for lab results.  It was towards the change of shift and I heard someone going off shift say to an arriving staff member,  ‘It’s been really quiet although we  heard a few minutes ago that they just received a “covid” in ICU.    Later, after I had been transported to the hospital, I had an opportunity to ask a Nurse how many covid patients they had in the hospital.  Response was “2 or 3”.   I was surprised as I had heard we had over a thousand cases in Dade;  I would have thought the number of hospitalized would have been much higher.  BTW, no access to hospital except ‘patients’.  Police stationed at the entrances.

    Once I was back home, I did some research and found the following information in an article printed in a Palm Beach County newspaper:   Miami Dade County:  total cases = 1,192;  number hospitalized = 92.   I am curious about these numbers.   Only 8% required hospital level care?   Good news, right?  Again, I thought the number would have been much higher.

    Nexus Notes:  Neither the news papers or television news are giving much ‘reporting” on an apparent major “cluster” here.   That said, Winter Party Festival was about two weeks ago.  Winter party Festival is a major male same-sex sexual activities/orgy event that went on for about a week here on Miami Beach.   BTW, this year it seems even married father of three, former Tallahassee Mayor, almost-Governor of Florida could not resist ‘the free-for-all’ fun!!    Andrew Gillum got caught by local PD when his RentMe friend required medical attention and a third person involved called 911.   He may have some explaining to do to his wife, but Gillum got off easy; despite a scene that included bags of controlled substances and a male that required medical attention, Gillum was allowed to leave the scene.  (No links but Police report, and yes, naked/near naked photos all available online for the weirdly curious) —

    Ok, ok, that’s enough scandal.  Reason for posting?  Just noting it seems many, many of the infected/spreaders in Miami Dade were participants at this particular festival.   Having seen some photos of the very crowded beaches where the festival took place, I just have to wonder what would our ‘positive for the virus’ numbers look like if we excluded the festival attendees and those they had contact with?   BTW,  the first covid-19 death in Dade was also a festival attendee.

    New item and good news.   I have never seen so many Miamians out walking around/riding bicycles with their friends and children.  They’re on every block.    It’s unusual, and seems strange but is really nice to see.

    Update:  1)  Eggs were back in the stores this week; picked up a dozen.  Purchase of key items such as water, meat, eggs are being limited.

    2) Continue to not know anyone who has tested positive; however, a former co-worker stated she knew someone who had tested positive.

    Summary.   Re : Miami, Dade County, Fl.   The ER/Hospitals seem quite empty.   Every male I read/heard about that has tested positive for the corona virus was also an attendee at a ‘festival’  (not saying they ALL did, just reporting what I’ve heard/read).   No true shortages.  People seem to be coping rather well.    That said, I am beginning to wonder just what the real risk is to the general population is, if one wears a face mask, ‘washes their hands’ … and avoids the high-risk scenes —  you know:  hospitals, ‘festivals’, orgies — I think we’ll be ok.

    I mean, can we get back to work yet?

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  10. TempTime, there is a big difference between those who test positive and those in serious critical condition. Many have the virus with no symptoms needing hospital care.

    Thank you for the tip on “no orgies”.

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  11. MJBubba:

    TempTime:
    situation

    Sorry for your situation, and we hope all is well with you and Mr. TempTime.

    Thank you.  But no worries.  Please be assured, “All is Well” with the health of my true being.  And my human self is going to be OK too.   🙂

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  12. 10 Cents:
    TempTime, there is a big difference between those who test positive and those in serious critical condition. Many have the virus with no symptoms needing hospital care.

    Yes.  I understand and agree.  That said,

    1.  I think I sometimes just want to find  a way to point out that what the headlines/stories the fake news is running does not match well with reality.   In this situation I was thinking about the complaint and insistence that we don’t have enough ventilators, protective equipment, etc. and that people are dying,  not getting proper medical care, etc.  because of the lack of equipment — I don’t see how this can be true, today.   There are right now, not that many hospitalized people, at least not in Dade County.  Our count averages out to only 2 or 3 ‘test positive’ persons per hospital, surely there are enough ventilators, masks, etc. for having only 2 or 3 patients.    Not saying there is not the potential for future problems.  In other words, I not saying it can’t rain tomorrow, just saying it is not raining today.   We should spend time preparing for tomorrow, not telling lies about today.

    2.   I become more convinced daily, we do not know the whole truth about what is really going on.   There is more to this story than the covid-19.   Yes, there is a the novel corona virus, and people are being diagnosed with covid-19,  and some people have died from this disease, but…   what we are being told just isn’t adding up for me.  I think there is a considerable amount ‘fake’ news being spread about.  But I can’t imagine why there would be a need to put out fake news.  Where’s the pay off/reward for doing so?  There seems to be a bigger story going on.

    3.  I was also being a little silly.  I mean really, who goes to anonymous intimate activity orgies in the  midst of highly contagious virus spreading like fire.   Just unbelievable.   A few of the people shown on the  news shows, as persons who have ‘tested positive’, and who attended the festival, are Medical Doctors ???  What were they thinking?  Seriously, before knowing they had the virus, and after the ‘festival’, what were they doing?   Treating patients?   How inexcusably irresponsible.

    4.  I really would like to see numbers excluding the clusters.

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  13. Since the last update (4pm Sunday 29 March) there have been four further confirmed positive tests for coronavirus.  The total number of confirmed cases of coronavirus in the Isle of Man now stands at 46.  44 patients have been instructed to self-isolate and two are being treated at the hospital. The contact tracing process is already underway led by Public Health.  There have been 774 concluded tests, 179 tests are awaiting results and 178 people are awaiting tests.

    I think that indeed, as others have already commented. it looks like most cases are mild and the numbers we’re getting from hospitals are skewed toward the severely affected.

    And I suspect that there’s a genetic component to susceptibility as well.

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  14. Today’s update for Switzerland [PDF] was published at 06:10 UTC on 2020-03-30.  This report is updated every day, but always has the same URL: you need to look at the document to see whether today’s update has been posted.  Summary:

    • Cases tested positive: 15,475, 1201 new since yesterday
    • Deaths so far: 295, 38 since yesterday, 60% male, 40% female, median age 82
    • Tests administered: 116,700, of which 13% were positive, 48% male, 52% female
    • Median age of those tested positive: 52
    • Total cases in hospital: 1445, 59% male, 41% female, median age 70
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  15. A paper has been posted on bioRχiv, “Reinfection could not occur in SARS-CoV-2 infected rhesus macaques” by 26 authors affiliated with the Peking Union Medical College and Capital Medical University of Beijing, China, which reports a study of four adult rhesus macaque monkeys who were infected with the SARS-Cov-2 virus.  All four developed symptoms, subsequently recovered, and after recovery tested positive for the antibody.  Twenty-eight days after the initial infection, two of the monkeys were re-infected with the same dose of the virus as administered originally.  Neither developed symptoms and tests for viral replication were negative.  This paper is a preprint and has not been peer reviewed.

    Here is a poster prepared by Dr Jesse B Rafel summarising COVID-19 clinical trials underway as of 2020-03-27 (click to enlarge in another tab/window).

    COVID-19 clinical trials, 2020-03-27

    This is based upon a Google Sheets spreadsheet of clinical trials underway, in which each item links to its description on the U.S. National Library of Medicine’s ClinicalTrials.gov Web site, which shows the status of COVID-19 trials.

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  16. UBS, the largest bank in Switzerland, has just published a special edition of their UBS House View reports, “COVID-19 market scenarios” [PDF].  The announcement was sent to customers, but the document may be downloaded by anybody.  The editorial at the start begins with this paragraph.

    When our descendants one day read about the events of the early 21st century in their history books, they will probably learn that mankind had to learn the hard way twice in that period how globalization had become a systemically important risk. At the end of the first decade, the enormous interconnectedness of the financial system almost brought about its collapse as a result of turmoil in the previously obscure US sub-prime mortgage market. Ten years or so later, a virus called Sars-CoV-2 spread all over the world at breakneck speed, forcing governments everywhere to take drastic containment measures. This was to prevent healthcare systems from collapsing under the strain and to launch equally unprecedented support programs to cushion the economic slump these caused. The lessons drawn from those events – our future readers will learn – lent further support to trends that had already been emerging in outline: de-globalization, sustainability and even more intensive use of digital technologies at all levels of society.

    The impact of the global lock-down is assessed as follows, “We estimate that the kind of restrictions now in place across many major economies could cut between 20% and 40% from private sector activity over the duration that they are enforced.” (p. 4)  Their baseline scenario assumes new cases peak in mid-April, and on that assumption, they forecast a U-shaped recession/depression with the S&P 500 trading around 2650 at the end of 2020 (it is 2581 as I write this).  Their worst case scenario for the S&P is 2100 and best case is 2900 (the all-time high was recorded on 2020-02-10 at 3380, so in the best case they do not envision this high being taken out this year).  The “Downside scenario” is based upon the following assumptions:

    Containment measures do not prove sufficient to halt the spread of the virus, and new cases continue to rise in Europe and the US into May/June. We also see the virus re-emerge in China. Most restrictions remain in place into June or July, and are re-imposed intermittently for the remainder of the year. (p. 8)

    I do not read these UBS reports for new insights and certainly not for investment strategy, but as a way to tap into the conventional wisdom.  If you want to know what Davos Man is thinking and doing, they provide a pretty good idea.  The analysis takes reports from China at face value (“China has controlled its outbreak for now,… [p. 4]), and does not consider the possibility that the situation there may be and may have been much worse than is admitted.

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