The way of things

I believe in empirical constructive dialectical materialism.

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/07/31/nolte-trader-joes-politely-tells-cancel-culture-to-shove-it/
… Good
kunstler.com/clusterfuck-nation/when-the-going-gets-weird-the-weird-get-punked/
… Not good. Kunstler began as a mild Liberal. That changed
https://www.unz.com/freed/its-gonna-blow-be-a-miracle-if-it-dont/
… Not good at all.  Fred was a journalist and is a retired Marine.

youtu.be/ jrKhRDDDrIo
Pottymouth LANGUAGE.  Your philosophical mileage may vary. Be polite; aim before firing.
youtu.be/v=4V_3itpmB0c
… Redirected stupidity is not intelligence, whatever its talents for presentation.

youtu.be/ftrCtOyLrmU
… A 12 ga. lead slug hitting a slab of ballistic gel. It is instantly incapacitating.
youtu.be/7HuVkXLreWE
… 2 min, 10 sec Wound channel dimensioning.
youtu.be/imSK0Dj5wY0

Circuits have fuses. It isn’t paranoia if it happens.

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49 thoughts on “The way of things”

  1. Uncle Al:
    https://www.unz.com/freed/its-gonna-blow-be-a-miracle-if-it-dont/

    Yes, it’s going to blow.  Fred Reed has always been ahead of the curve in perceiving what is going on.  The U.S. is going down, and it has been entirely predictable from policies dating from the Great Society in 1965.  I do not celebrate it; I mourn it.  This is the loss of a country which has created more opportunity for more people, including my ancestors, than any other in history.

    But I left it in 1991, because I perceived that as someone who created wealth, I was seen as not just a milk cow, but eventually a beef cow.  I have never regretted that decision.

    To those still in the U.S., imagine you’re in Hong Kong.  What will you do?  When will you do it?  How much do you value liberty over current income?

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  2. John Walker:

    Uncle Al:
    https://www.unz.com/freed/its-gonna-blow-be-a-miracle-if-it-dont/

    Yes, it’s going to blow.  Fred Reed has always been ahead of the curve in perceiving what is going on.  The U.S. is going down, and it has been entirely predictable from policies dating from the Great Society in 1965.  I do not celebrate it; I mourn it.  This is the loss of a country which has created more opportunity for more people, including my ancestors, than any other in history.

    But I left it in 1991, because I perceived that as someone who created wealth, I was seen as not just a milk cow, but eventually a beef cow.  I have never regretted that decision.

    To those still in the U.S., imagine you’re in Hong Kong.  What will you do?  When will you do it?  How much do you value liberty over current income?

    It is too late to escape. Even those of us with some resources have not nearly enough to evacuate, self, wife, three children and spouses, grandchildren (even if they would all be willing to go). It is like watching the tide recede before the tsunami. I am hoping the suburbs are sufficiently high ground to escape the main wave when it hits. Myself, Ihave lived the vast majority of my life and I am angry enough at the affirmative and intentional betrayal of all that was good about America and the hope it used to represent, that I will act defend my family and my neighborhood with all I have (of that, I have sufficient to resist effectively) if the tide of violence reaches me. If the authorities are on the wrong side, they will be similarly resisted. It is the end game. Although I do not seek it, I am ready for it to play out. I can only hope there are millions like me. It is the last remaining hope for most of us.

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  3. civil westman:
    It is too late to escape.

    This is also my position. While possible in principle, as a practical matter it’s hard to pull off. For starters, I’d have trouble convincing anyone to come with. Most don’t see the US as an imminent failed state, I daresay including most folks on Ratburger. And they might even be right in the limited sense that catastrophic decline may not be imminent. There are often reversals in the decline into the abyss. The decline and fall of the Roman Empire took a long time, as Gibbon tells us.

    I’m grateful to have lived through the peak of the American Experiment, especially as one who lived in a ****hole country for a while. During those peak years, I enjoyed the fruits of my labors, resulting in a good life. Now I’m just looking to run out the clock. My version of evacuation is to leave California for a more hospitable state.

    A younger person should definitely get out of the US. It’s not entirely clear where to go.

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  4. drlorentz:
    A younger person should definitely get out of the US. It’s not entirely clear where to go.

    I discussed this for a while with both sons.  They considered some of the usual spots that get considered as good locations for American ex-pats.  I pointed out that, if America goes down, all the places in the Western Hemisphere will go down also; it is only the presence of America that allows them to be safe places.

    So they spoke of other locales, as far-fetched as Botswana, and then focused on Europe.  In the end they agreed that there is no place to go.  Switzerland was the only spot that seemed likely to weather the looming calamity.

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  5. From Fred Reed’s article, the bitter truth:

    “The deadliest question is how to accommodate blacks. One mustn’t say what everyone knows, that blacks are the least educable, least productive, most criminal, most violent, most dependent, and least assimilable of the population. If anything can be done about any of these, it won’t be, because no one is permitted to name the problem.”

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  6. Freesmith:
    From Fred Reed’s article, the bitter truth:

    “The deadliest question is how to accommodate blacks. One mustn’t say what everyone knows, that blacks are the least educable, least productive, most criminal, most violent, most dependent, and least assimilable of the population. If anything can be done about any of these, it won’t be, because no one is permitted to name the problem.”

    Oh come on. The problem of unproductive and violent people is NOT exclusively with black people, that is just dumb.  Any racial/genetic differences recede into insignificance relative to other factors when comparing groups. And any racial/genetic group differences tell you nothing about an individual.

    We all know smart and valuable black people and useless aimless white people. I agree you should be able to name race as the problem, but you would be ridiculously wrong.  The part that matters isn’t race, it’s culture.

    We are dumbing down and destroying Western European culture as fast as possible, doing it to ourselves, no fault of black people, and not much of an inspirational example either.

    The rioters are mostly white.

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  7. Freesmith:
    From Fred Reed’s article, the bitter truth:

    “The deadliest question is how to accommodate blacks. One mustn’t say what everyone knows, that blacks are the least educable, least productive, most criminal, most violent, most dependent, and least assimilable of the population. If anything can be done about any of these, it won’t be, because no one is permitted to name the problem.”

    I don’t agree with this assessment. Assimilation problems are far more acute for immigrants, especially those who do not speak English. Blacks have been a part of American life and culture for a long time, resulting in much commonality. For instance, in music (and I don’t mean hip-hop) black artists have played an important role: jazz, the blues, rock & roll. These are distinctly American forms. We’ve been living together for centuries.

    On the other hand, the late Sam Francis argues that the roots of the anarcho-tyranny we are experiencing, and have been for some time, is multiculturalism in the form of immigration.

    Political freedom relies on a shared political culture as much as on the oppositions and balances that social differentiation creates, and when the common culture disintegrates under the impact of mass migrations, only institutionalized force can hold the regime together.

    The only way to hold a multiculti society together is by tyranny. We saw this at work in the former Soviet Union and in Yugoslavia. Democracy and multiculturalism are natural enemies.

    Note that Fancis’s column is from 2004 and the quote above is from 1990.

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  8. Jojo:
    Any racial/genetic differences recede into insignificance relative to other factors when comparing groups. And any racial/genetic group differences tell you nothing about an individual.

    I agree with some of your comment but this part is simply not consistent with the facts. Given that many behavioral traits are highly heritable, racial/genetic differences absolutely do matter. This is no longer controversial among serious scholars in the field who are not infected with political correctness. Back in 1994, when Hernstein and Murray published The Bell Curve, there may have been some wiggle room but the last quarter century has not been kind to their critics.

    While is is true that such differences are not deterministic and individuals deviate significantly from averages, when considering society-wide effects and social policy, numbers matter. If you have a subgroup within a society that, on average,
    (a) has lower cognitive ability
    (b) a greater propensity to violence
    these facts matter a great deal in the aggregate. To deny this is to deny reality.

    Blank Slate ideology has a firm grip on popular culture, though all parents will insist that their children resemble them: the apple doesn’t fall far from the tree. It’s not unusual for people to hold two mutually contradictory ideas in the head simultaneously, whilst claiming they are perfectly consistent.

    The Blank Slate, like Magic Dirt Theory, are part of the official state religion of the West. That doesn’t mean either one has a handle on reality.

    Jojo:

    The part that matters isn’t race, it’s culture.

    What you have failed to grasp is that race and culture are related. How do you imagine any culture ever came into being?

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  9. Jojo:
    The rioters are mostly white.

    One last comment: the rioters are a tiny proportion of the population, an unrepresentative part at that. There will always be a few spiteful mutants, of any race, who want to tear down.

    It is erroneous to draw conclusions from a small, unrepresentative sample.

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  10. drlorentz:

    Jojo:
    The rioters are mostly white.

    One last comment: the rioters are a tiny proportion of the population, an unrepresentative part at that. There will always be a few spiteful mutants, of any race, who want to tear down.

    It is erroneous to draw conclusions from a small, unrepresentative sample.

    I generally subscribe to what you say. While I haven’t time to find the source, someone analyzed the Islamist influence in Europe and asserted that a mere 15 % of the population, if sufficiently politically aggressive and vocal, could succeed in becoming the predominant political/cultural force there. Here, the unrepresentative sample enjoys the support of many government officials and bureaucracies at local, state and federal levels, one major political party (and likely a cadre of retired generals and, arguably, even some of the active military) and the entire mainstream “media” (=their propaganda arm). I don’t think it is wise to underestimate their power to create massive civil unrest, at the very least. Even a coup is not beyond the pale anymore.

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  11. drlorentz:

    Jojo:
    Any racial/genetic differences recede into insignificance relative to other factors when comparing groups. And any racial/genetic group differences tell you nothing about an individual.

    I agree with some of your comment but this part is simply not consistent with the facts.

    Exactly what that I said is inconsistent with exactly what facts?  I didn’t say race/genetics are not a factor. I said the effect of individual variation within groups, and external (cultural) factors is more significant than the effect of group differences.

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  12. drlorentz:

    Jojo:
    The rioters are mostly white.

    One last comment: the rioters are a tiny proportion of the population, an unrepresentative part at that. There will always be a few spiteful mutants, of any race, who want to tear down.

    It is erroneous to draw conclusions from a small, unrepresentative sample.

    The point of the post is that the country is “gonna blow.” My point is that it is being brought to a crisis by white people, not black people. If you thought my point was that white people are violent, you misunderstood.

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  13. Jojo:

    drlorentz:

    Jojo:
    Any racial/genetic differences recede into insignificance relative to other factors when comparing groups. And any racial/genetic group differences tell you nothing about an individual.

    I agree with some of your comment but this part is simply not consistent with the facts.

    Exactly what that I said is inconsistent with exactly what facts?  I didn’t say race/genetics are not a factor. I said the effect of individual variation within groups, and external (cultural) factors is more significant than the effect of group differences. [emphasis added]

    Exactly what you repeated above is inconsistent with the facts, as I already explained, especially the highlighted part.

    You also neglected to account for my comment that genetics is correlated with culture: culture is downstream from biology. Do you imagine that Japanese culture would have arisen in Poland or Zimbabwe? Is there anything uniquely Japanese about Japanese culture?

    This is the reason mass migration and the consequent multiculturalism are problems. This is why Yugoslavia could only be held together by oppressive force. Did you bother to read Sam Francis’s article?

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  14.  

    drlorentz:

    What you have failed to grasp is that race and culture are related. How do you imagine any culture ever came into being?

    Well I don’t know how you could know that I failed to grasp that they are related, when what I actually said was they are not the same.  Do you think they are the same? You think that a person of African genetic heritage will necessarily be incapable of embracing the values of Western European culture? Surely you are not saying that, so you would agree they are not the same.

    Again the bigger problem is not that blacks don’t value our inherited Western culture, but that whites don’t.

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  15. Jojo:

    drlorentz:

    Jojo:
    The rioters are mostly white.

    One last comment: the rioters are a tiny proportion of the population, an unrepresentative part at that. There will always be a few spiteful mutants, of any race, who want to tear down.

    It is erroneous to draw conclusions from a small, unrepresentative sample.

    The point of the post is that the country is “gonna blow.” My point is that it is being brought to a crisis by white people, not black people. If you thought my point was that white people are violent, you misunderstood.

    I’m not responsible for the opinions expressed in the OP, nor do I care what “point of the post” is. You’ll notice I did not respond to anything in the OP. My comments were directed at others in this thread.

    The country is gonna blow because of stuff that’s been brewing for decades. The riots are a symptom, not the underlying disease. Rome wasn’t built in a day, nor was it destroyed in a day.

    Ask yourself, why are we having months of riots over a single police shooting? Why is the political class complicit in them? If you thought these riots have much to do with race, you have misunderstood.

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  16. drlorentz:

     

    Exactly what you repeated above is inconsistent with the facts, as I already explained, especially the highlighted part.

    You also neglected to account for my comment that genetics is correlated with culture: culture is downstream from biology. Do you imagine that Japanese culture would have arisen in Poland or Zimbabwe? Is there anything uniquely Japanese about Japanese culture?

    I asked for facts because I didn’t see facts in what you wrote.

    Didn’t neglect genetics/culture comment! Was still getting there! Can’t type fast enough!

    Still getting to the actual key point too one more comment!

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  17. Jojo:
    Well I don’t know how you could know that I failed to grasp that they are related, when what I actually said was they are not the same.  Do you think they are the same? You think that a person of African genetic heritage will necessarily be incapable of embracing the values of Western European culture? Surely you are not saying that, so you would agree they are not the same.

    Causes and effects are not the same. As I already explained, culture is downstream from biology. Obviously, biology and culture are not the same but they are causally related.

    It is a straw man argument to write “…a person of African genetic heritage will necessarily be incapable of embracing the values of Western European culture.” By using the word incapable, you make the thesis disprovable by one counterexample.

    The human sciences are not like mathematics, where a theorem has to be true every time; there can be no counterexamples. Humans are far more complicated and the human sciences only make statistical statements about aggregates of humans, not about individuals. I thought I made that clear above.

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  18. drlorentz:

    Ask yourself, why are we having months of riots over a single police shooting? Why is the political class complicit in them? If you thought these riots have much to do with race, you have misunderstood.

    Yes! Agreed the riots have little to do with race! So why are we arguing about race? Why is there a comment saying America’s big problem is black people, because they are violent etc etc? That’s what seemed crazy to me and caused me to chime in.

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  19. drlorentz:

    While is is true that such differences are not deterministic and individuals deviate significantly from averages, when considering society-wide effects and social policy, numbers matter. If you have a subgroup within a society that, on average,
    (a) has lower cognitive ability
    (b) a greater propensity to violence
    these facts matter a great deal in the aggregate. To deny this is to deny reality.

    Ok this is the big picture question: WHY does subgroup average cognitive ability or propensity to violence matter when considering society-wide effects and social policy???   Do we treat people differently based on their subgroup average characteristics?

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  20. Jojo:
    I asked for facts because I didn’t see facts in what you wrote.

    I can’t hope to summarize the entire body of work in human biodiversity in a comment or two in this thread. You can start by reading The Bell Curve, follow it up with more recent work in the field, which is voluminous. I already cited some facts:

    1. “many behavioral traits are highly heritable” (comment #9)
    2. I.Q. is heritable, more so than estimated in The Bell Curve

    These, and related topics, have been discussed at length on other threads here at Ratburger. I invite you to seek those out. You might also enjoy James Damore’s memo – you know, the one that got him fired from Google.

    Edit: On the relationship between genetics and educational attainment, this paper in Nature Genetics is an example of recent genome-wide association studies (GWAS) that identify single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that relate to cognitive ability. Unlike the social science correlations that were used by Hernstein and Murray in The Bell Curve, this kind of work identifies the specific genetic pathways of the inheritance of cognitive ability. This is the kind of advances that I referred to above when I wrote that much has been learned in the last quarter century. I have a copy of the paper if you’d like to read it without paying the exorbitant fee.

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  21. Jojo:
    Ok this is the big picture question: WHY does subgroup average cognitive ability or propensity to violence matter when considering society-wide effects and social policy???   Do we treat people differently based on their subgroup average characteristics?

    That is precisely where these statistical difference matter: on a societal and policy level. One-on-one, they don’t matter one bit. Public policy and understanding broad social trends is where even small aggregate differences count.

    Let’s consider a person with phenotype X. This could be race, sex, or some other innate characteristic. If you meet a person of X, the average of the traits of X people matter little because of the large variability in such persons. An uncontroversial example might help to clarify the point. Men are taller than women, on the average. This fact is of limited use in guessing the height of a random person because there will be many exceptions. On the other hand, it would be misleading to display a very tall woman and say, “See, you’re wrong!” Damore tried to explain this with a handy little graphic I have stolen:

    In a population of many millions of people, these do averages matter. Let’s say group A has a higher propensity to violence than group B. Then one would not be surprised if group A had a disproportionate number of interactions with police, and those interactions tended to be more violent. It does not mean that any individual member of A is likely to have a violent interaction with police.

    Consider another example: disparate impact. This idea, codified in law, relies on the assumption that there are no group differences. Absent that assumption, the policy is nonsense – worse, it’s immoral.

    Next, consider Head Start. This is another bit of public policy that depends on the assumption there are no significant group differences among children.* After half a century of failure, it continues because of adherence to the belief in the Blank Slate.

    These are just a few example off the top of my head. If memory serves, there were lots in The Bell Curve. If memory serves, that was the main impetus the authors had for writing the book. As the very title indicates, it is about distributions of traits over populations, not about individuals (cf. Damore’s graphic). The authors were careful to point this out, as well as to point out that correlations in social sciences tend to be weak for the reasons I explained in comment #18.

    *Just to be clear, the group differences in this case are not necessarily race.

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  22. Jojo:
    Why is there a comment saying America’s big problem is black people

    If you’ll notice, my first comment about this issue disputed Fred Reed’s thesis, quoted in comment #6 by Freesmith. My quarrel with you was in your response, in comment #7, to Freesmith, specifically your statement

    Jojo:
    Any racial/genetic differences recede into insignificance relative to other factors when comparing groups.

    While not quite a pure Blank Slate statement, you are 99% of the way there, claiming that genetic differences are insignificant (your term). They most certainly are not and that’s what I wrote.

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  23. I don’t see the facts here supporting that individual differences and environmental influence are not far more significant than    racial/genetic differences. “Significance” requires context. The context here is whether a racial group is a problem that must be addressed  as a racial group. In other words, that their race IS the problem. That is the comment (#6) to which I was responding. I have read some of the threads on the subject in  Ratburger, I read James Damore’s sensible essay. I  never saw those facts there either, and I never saw the suggestion that blacks as a racial group were the essential problem needing to be solved, which strikes me as nuts.

    Ending racially based concepts like disparate impact, affirmative action- that seems helpful however you arrive at it. They are clearly not what comment 6 had in mind.

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  24. Jojo:
    I don’t see the facts here supporting that individual differences and environmental influence are not far more significant than racial/genetic differences. “Significance” requires context.

    Well, “significance” is a term which has a precise meaning in statistical hypothesis testing, and when one has a large volume of data on a phenomenon, it is possible to compute, with high precision, the probability that a given result is due to chance as opposed to the hypothesis being tested.

    Instead of violence, which can be measured in various ways which can be disputed as over- or under-sampling certain populations, consider intelligence as measured by IQ tests.  Within a population, the distribution of results closely follows a Gaussian or normal distribution (“bell curve”), which can be characterised by just two parameters: mean and standard deviation.  As it happens, IQ is negatively correlated with crime, so a low IQ predicts a higher crime rate.

    The mean IQ of various populations is one of the most well-documented statistics in the human sciences, with sample sizes in the millions, and appears to be stable across many other variables.  The result, replicated innumerable times, is that the African American population in the U.S. has a mean IQ around 85, which is one standard deviation (15) below the population of European ancestry, with an IQ around 100.  This, from basic statistics, has the following two consequences which Steve Sailer points out are hard for many people to grasp:

    1. A black individual is moderately often (about 1/6th of the time) smarter than the average white individual.
    2. A black group is almost never smarter on average than a white group.

    This is why it is important to keep the distinction between individual characteristics and group averages in mind: membership in a group tells you nothing about an individual member of the group, but that doesn’t mean you can’t accurately predict the results for a sufficiently large ensemble of members of that group.

    This is the case not just for IQ, but for many metrics including violent crime and time preference, which is at the bottom of many of the behavioural traits measured by social scientists.

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