## Models, Schmodels

Models are judged by their predictive skill. During today’s COVID-19 press briefing,* Dr. Birx presented the latest modeling that is informing decisions at the federal level. The model makes specific predictions about the number of deaths expected under the current “full mitigation” scheme. Within about two weeks, deaths are predicted to peak at 2.2k per day and it should be clear if the model has predictive value or not. The advantage to using deaths instead of confirmed cases is that the latter are subject to testing bias; corpses are easier to count.

This graph plots the number of deaths per day (vertical scale: each division is 500) versus date (February 1 through August 1). Click on the graph for a full size version. The area under the graph is the cumulative (total) number of expected deaths. The dashed curve is labeled as “projected,” which I take to be the principal prediction within the wider band of uncertainty. The projected curve is approximated by
$$deaths per day=120(x-3.5)^4 exp[ -4(x-3.5) ]$$.
The total number of deaths obtained by integrating under the curve is about 90k, which is in good agreement with an eyeball estimate. The lower and upper bounds are 40k and 140k, respectively.... [Read More]

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## We Shall Overcome

(This was a comment but I decided to promote it to a post.)

Right now I am up to my ears in trying to keep two different small companies alive. I am also going blind from trying to get answers on the “Payroll Protection Act” on whether it covers 1099 workers.... [Read More]

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## Why Astrophysicists Shouldn’t Build Things

Australian astrophysicist Daniel Reardon thought he’d turn his inventiveness to help humanity by inventing a device to help people learn not to inadvertently touch their faces.  His idea was to build a necklace with sensors which would respond to magnets worn on the wrists and buzz to alert the wearer when their hands approached the face.... [Read More]

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## Not to further offend soft skinned people, The “Chinese” are liars.

Not to further offend soft skinned people, The “Chinese” are liars.

That is the obvious conclusion about the reports from the Chinese news agencies on the number of deaths in Wuhan.
Urn deliveries in Wuhan raise questions about China’s actual coronavirus death toll.... [Read More]

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## Isolation Skills: How to Make Sourdough Bread

Today, President Trump extended the federally recommended period for isolation against the Wuhan virus until the end of April. In light of that extension, I’d like to share some personal, practical knowledge with as wide an audience as possible.

Ten years ago, I actively sought out a low-tech, hands-on hobby – something that I could do to fully unwind from a stressful day working in I.T.. I eventually settled on baking bread. Two years into that hobby, I grew and used my first sourdough culture. I have never looked back.... [Read More]

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## April Really Is The Cruelest Month

Shutdown continuing till April 30.
This means ruin, as far as I can see. Private wealth, any not  destroyed by the market collapses, will be confiscated to pay for this.  We will end our days as pensioners.

Let’s carpetbomb all major Chinese cities.

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## Vietnam’s Ministry of Health

In an animated music video from an unlikely source, Vietnam’s Ministry of Health may have unwittingly delivered the epidemic’s anthem — a catchy three-minute tune that sounds like it belongs on Top 40 rotation reminding citizens to wash their hands vigorously, avoid touching their faces and stay clear of crowded places.